I have updated my Decay Watch page with my very late final notice for
#25641 and the first one for the Shenzhou 4 OM. In summary:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25641 = 99- 9 D = ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Sep 4 01:42 Sep 4 07:55 +-10h 4.9 N 145.9 E
SatEvo Sep 7 08:00 Sep 4 10:43 +-6h 2.7 N 78.2 E
Final elset:
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda 356 x 131 km
1 25641U 99009D 03247.38592554 .14478982 -33868-4 55124-3 0 8773
2 25641 6.6335 199.3318 0169679 359.6982 0.3056 16.11369163 83942
Note: I waited a long time, but the final SCC notices for this have
not appeared on OIG's website. The final elsets are also difficult
to reconcile with earlier ones; taken on its own, indeed, the final
one above might even be indicative of a decay on the 5th. The epoch
of this elset, 09:16 UTC on the 3rd, suggests that it survived
beyond SCC's latest prediction of 07:55 UTC. My estimate is that
this decayed over the Indian Ocean just to the S of India soon after
the beginning of the orbit following this SatEvo-predicted rev:
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda 209 x 124 km
1 25641U 99009D 03247.38201518 1.02497786 50023+1 14983-2 0 98741
2 25641 6.6607 199.2057 0064226 357.7427 2.2286 16.39776569 83935
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27634 = 02- 61 C = Shenzhou 4 Orbital Module
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Sep 5 19:10 Sep 8 18:48 +-2d 42.4 S 140.6 W
SatEvo Sep 7 08:40 Sep 8 23:40 +-15h 14.5 N 106.0 W
Latest elset:
Shenzhou 4 OMd 4.0 2.5 0.0 5.0 d 11 214 x 203 km
1 27634U 02061C 03249.71844142 .01924984 85583-5 68532-3 0 8830
2 27634 42.3976 235.3835 0008361 131.9361 228.2225 16.23938586 39585
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(Ends)
Shenzhou 4 OMd 4.0 2.5 0.0 5.0 d 11 153 x 150 km
1 27634U 02061C 03251.86139676 .21964906 49704+0 63980-3 0 98838
2 27634 42.3923 221.1488 0002820 148.5795 211.4373 16.45424064 39935
Shenzhou 4 OMd 4.0 2.5 0.0 5.0 d 11 144 x 141 km
1 27634U 02061C 03251.92203164 .38369718 17515+1 54840-3 0 98838
2 27634 42.3915 220.7368 0002188 149.0614 210.9515 16.48873984 39946
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 33 deg N in the
evening and leaves eclipse southbound near 11 deg S before dawn.
I estimate that decay will occur northbound on a track across
Mexico, and over Mexico City, on the orbit following the final
SatEvo-predicted rev above.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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