Decay watch: 2000 Nov 21

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Nov 21 2000 - 13:39:11 PST

  • Next message: Tony Beresford: "corrected observations nov 21"

    My Decay Watch page has been updated...
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23824 = 96- 10 E = Raduga 33 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 21 02:58     Nov 22 22:26 +-1d        40.3 N   116.7 W
    SatEvo     Nov 21 21:25     Nov 22 22:28 +-14h       46.0 N   174.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1765 x 212 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00325.85312440  .28545648  78171-5  12881+0 0  9880
    2 23824  47.3936 161.9669 1054029  67.3308 303.8042 13.73067135 59223
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              586 x 177 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00327.85542687 1.28572785  17519+1  94251-1 0 99889
    2 23824  47.3291 152.6309 0302601  76.2474 287.1022 15.62300013 59518
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              484 x 170 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00327.91887530 1.79220506  41410+1  88963-1 0 99882
    2 23824  47.3243 152.2759 0233895  76.5871 286.0092 15.81342241 59528
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              323 x 155 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00327.98130354 4.05652813  30249+2  76647-1 0 99881
    2 23824  47.3175 151.9143 0126940  76.9332 284.4807 16.12907910 59535
    
    Note: The latest elset has this running 81 sec early against yesterday's
    SatEvo prediction. However, this elset is already more than a day old.
    I anticipate that this will decay near perigee on the penultimate of 
    these SatEvo-predicted orbits, perhaps eastbound over the N Pacific, 
    to the S of the Aleutian Islands. SpaceCom puts the decay further on 
    on the same rev, over Nevada.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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