{I sent an earlier version of this message twice about 5 h ago, which have
failed to appear - TJM]
Although Raduga 33 is in shadow during its passages through perigee, it may be
sufficiently low to glow due to atmospheric heating.
Coincidentally, its rocket body did just that, back in August of 1996, as
observed by Stephen Bolton:
http://satobs.org/seesat/Aug-1996/0151.html
"The sat was at max brightness, approx -2, just prior to U. Maj. and before
reaching max elevation above local horizon. Then appeared to slowly dim but
remained visible with binoculars and glowing to loss near the NE horizon."
Stephen was fortunate to observe the object about 30 s after its passage through
perigee, about 97 km above the Earth.
Raduga 33's perigee passages are somewhat higher, about 110 km, but that should
be low enough for atmospheric heating to occur.
As Mike McCants pointed out, the object's latitude of perigee is near 48 N;
therefore, to observe atmospheric heating, observers must be near that latitude
- the closer the better, but observers between about 43.3 N and 52.5 N are
sufficiently close for perigee passage to occur at least 10 deg above their
horizon. At those latitudes, passes will occur almost entirely in shadow, so the
object will only be visible due to atmospheric heating.
Anyone lucky enough to see it pass directly overhead while at perigee will see
it move at a breathtaking 4.74 deg/s.
Anyone who sees it (whether self-illuminated or sun-illuminated) should make an
effort to make the "approximate positional observation" requested by Mike.
Timing to the nearest second of closest approach to a known star, or passage
between a pair of known stars should be sufficient. Try to note the position
relative the star(s) at the moment of timing.
Those of us with access to NASA/OIG should make certain to share updated elsets
via SeeSat-L, as soon as possible after they are issued.
The latest as of 2004 May 02 14:22 UTC:
1 23794U 96010A 04123.46837407 .58490862 11634-4 41863-2 0 4888
2 23794 47.7709 126.7186 3314068 91.8175 305.6151 9.09301630 71918
1 23794U 96010A 04123.35798180 -.15148696 12188-4 -85375-3 0 4871
2 23794 47.7812 126.9494 3327391 91.1422 306.4309 9.07800041 71909
1 23794U 96010A 04123.35797354 .69754452 11372-4 42234-2 0 4851
2 23794 47.7477 126.9736 3383014 91.4157 306.8672 8.96226734 71902
1 23794U 96010A 04123.35797620 .32526659 11628-4 18947-2 0 4840
2 23794 47.7390 126.9597 3380173 91.4222 306.8660 8.96992766 71909
1 23794U 96010A 04123.36218493 .37883177 11599-4 23876-2 0 4836
2 23794 47.7389 126.9680 3374789 91.4355 320.4106 8.97681482 71901
USSTRATCOM appears to be struggling to fit an orbit, as evidenced by 4 different
elsets for the same ascending node.
Ted Molczan
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