RE: Decaying Raduga 33

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Sun May 02 2004 - 10:27:25 EDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "RE: Correction re: Decaying Raduga 33"

    {I sent an earlier version of this message twice about 5 h ago, which have
    failed to appear - TJM]
    
    Although Raduga 33 is in shadow during its passages through perigee, it may be
    sufficiently low to glow due to atmospheric heating.
    
    Coincidentally, its rocket body did just that, back in August of 1996, as
    observed by Stephen Bolton:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Aug-1996/0151.html
    
    "The sat was at max brightness, approx -2, just prior to U. Maj. and before
    reaching max elevation above local horizon. Then appeared to slowly dim but
    remained visible with binoculars and glowing to loss near the NE horizon."
    
    Stephen was fortunate to observe the object about 30 s after its passage through
    perigee, about 97 km above the Earth.
    
    Raduga 33's perigee passages are somewhat higher, about 110 km, but that should
    be low enough for atmospheric heating to occur.
    
    As Mike McCants pointed out, the object's latitude of perigee is near 48 N;
    therefore, to observe atmospheric heating, observers must be near that latitude
    - the closer the better, but observers between about 43.3 N and 52.5 N are
    sufficiently close for perigee passage to occur at least 10 deg above their
    horizon. At those latitudes, passes will occur almost entirely in shadow, so the
    object will only be visible due to atmospheric heating.
    
    Anyone lucky enough to see it pass directly overhead while at perigee will see
    it move at a breathtaking 4.74 deg/s.
    
    Anyone who sees it (whether self-illuminated or sun-illuminated) should make an
    effort to make the "approximate positional observation" requested by Mike.
    Timing to the nearest second of closest approach to a known star, or passage
    between a pair of known stars should be sufficient. Try to note the position
    relative the star(s) at the moment of timing.
    
    Those of us with access to NASA/OIG should make certain to share updated elsets
    via SeeSat-L, as soon as possible after they are issued.
    
    The latest as of 2004 May 02 14:22 UTC:
    
    1 23794U 96010A   04123.46837407  .58490862  11634-4  41863-2 0  4888
    2 23794  47.7709 126.7186 3314068  91.8175 305.6151  9.09301630 71918
    
    1 23794U 96010A   04123.35798180 -.15148696  12188-4 -85375-3 0  4871
    2 23794  47.7812 126.9494 3327391  91.1422 306.4309  9.07800041 71909
    
    1 23794U 96010A   04123.35797354  .69754452  11372-4  42234-2 0  4851
    2 23794  47.7477 126.9736 3383014  91.4157 306.8672  8.96226734 71902
    
    1 23794U 96010A   04123.35797620  .32526659  11628-4  18947-2 0  4840
    2 23794  47.7390 126.9597 3380173  91.4222 306.8660  8.96992766 71909
    
    1 23794U 96010A   04123.36218493  .37883177  11599-4  23876-2 0  4836
    2 23794  47.7389 126.9680 3374789  91.4355 320.4106  8.97681482 71901
    
    USSTRATCOM appears to be struggling to fit an orbit, as evidenced by 4 different
    elsets for the same ascending node.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive:  
    http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun May 02 2004 - 10:58:42 EDT