Re: Help needed again from meteorland

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At 21:30 10/03/98 +0000, Alan Pickup wrote:
>
>I can find no decaying object to fit the bill. With one uncertain
>exception (see below) I know of no re-entries since that of the STEP-2
>Pegasus debris object #24078 (= 94- 29 DZ) at about March 7.4.
>
......
>The exception is the Molniya 1-73 r2 #19380 (= 88- 69 D) for which no
>new elsets have appeared since this ten-day-old one:
>Molniya 1-73 r2                                  39430 x 35 km
>1 19380U 88069D   98059.82491480  .01418581 -20442-4  28206-5 0  9739
>2 19380  63.7756 357.1588 7543677 245.9595  22.6562  2.05789893 46545
>The perigee is certainly wrong - it was probably closer to 105 km at
>this epoch. My calculations suggest, however, that the perigee is being
>forced down by lunisolar effects at about 1 km per day. USSPACECOM
>appear to have lost it for the moment though I expect that they will
>find it again before it re-enters - my current SatEvo decay list
>predicts this for "March 19?". It is not impossible that this has
>decayed already, though this is unlikely in my opinion.
Alan, wouldnt the forced decay in such a situation lead
to an orbit at decay of appreciable eccentricity and hence
a decay at perigee, which is deep in southern hemisphere.
Tony Beresford

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