The following is taken from my updated Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25987 = 99- 65 H = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r1
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 19 11:27 Apr 19 08:29 +-1h 18.4 S 20.1 W
SatEvo Apr 19 19:15 Apr 19 08:09 +-40m 24.1 N 62.1 W
Final elset:
Orb 30 Peg r1 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.1 148 x 144 km
1 25987U 99065H 02109.26724941 .25994523 10742-4 48312-3 0 7252
2 25987 44.9697 114.3159 0002602 28.7917 45.1710 16.47507495132327
Note: I show this decaying while southbound over the western Altantic,
to the NE of Puerto Rico, on the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
Orb 30 Peg r1 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.1 125 x 124 km
1 25987U 99065H 02109.31531062 1.73362541 50000+2 80632-3 0 97259
2 25987 44.9674 114.0012 0001432 29.1259 330.8821 16.55666203132331
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26941 = 01- 45 F = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 19 03:05 Apr 20 02:09 +-21h 34.4 N 89.6 E
SatEvo Apr 19 20:05 Apr 20 00:10 +-3h 44.4 N 92.5 E
Latest elset:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1441 x 93 km
1 26941U 01045F 02109.67945582 .99999999 89381-5 19198-2 0 2315
2 26941 46.8334 190.8074 0943271 82.9210 40.7133 14.37470730 6425
SatEvo prediction:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 983 x 88 km
1 26941U 01045F 02109.86105785 2.45907367 30315+1 22674-2 0 92310
2 26941 46.8073 189.9155 0647421 83.7952 283.5368 15.10175782 6455
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 764 x 86 km
1 26941U 01045F 02109.92614929 3.33090966 64208+1 24004-2 0 92315
2 26941 46.7981 189.5692 0498374 84.1348 281.5223 15.47091077 6462
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 450 x 83 km
1 26941U 01045F 02109.98925432 6.45598467 50000+2 28588-2 0 92317
2 26941 46.7796 189.2114 0275608 84.4860 278.6510 16.02918942 6475
Note: I have this decaying over Mongolia following perigee on the
final SatEvo-predicted rev above. SpaceCom's point is one rev later,
but further SpaceCom predictions for this are long overdue.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27411 = 02- 17 C = Cosmos 2388 casing (aka Platform)
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 18 21:28 Apr 18 19:56 +-7m 37.4 N 70.1 W
SatEvo Apr 19 19:00 Apr 18 20:38 +-60m 28.1 S 85.5 E
Final elsets:
Cosmos 2388 casing 196 x 134 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.70309778 .12082651 83962-5 25713-3 0 571
2 27411 62.8322 46.6708 0047091 127.7709 232.8722 16.40444866 2679
Cosmos 2388 casing 342 x -16 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.76380920 .25218833 00000-0 23859-4 0 557
2 27411 62.7292 46.6464 0274523 332.7493 20.2890 16.41364461 2682
Note: The final elset, with its subterranean perigee, is very suspect
and appeared before the penultimate one above, which I regard as the
final "good" elset. I am also sceptical of the 7 min uncertainty
in SpaceCom's decay time. I have the decay occurring southbound over
the Indian Ocean of the second of these SatEvo predicted orbits:
Cosmos 2388 casing 168 x 118 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.76379278 .46862747 13553+1 37790-3 0 90579
2 27411 62.8308 46.4163 0037686 127.7827 232.5591 16.48613858 2685
Cosmos 2388 casing 139 x 109 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.82430184 .83725547 59003+1 33635-3 0 90571
2 27411 62.8285 46.1604 0023247 127.7947 232.4160 16.56012436 2693
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Apr 19 2002 - 16:22:50 EDT