A very late elset for the Shenzhou rocket suggests that this survived
much longer than expected. The following is taken from my Decay Watch
page which I'll be updating further in the near future.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27398 = 02- 14 B = Shenzhou 3 CZ-2F rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 2 17:31 Apr 2 17:04 +-7m 29.0 S 107.0 E
SatEvo Apr 3 19:05 Apr 2 23:36 +-50m 25.9 N 179.0 W
Final elsets:
Shenzhou 3 r 10.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 d 20 181 x 151 km
1 27398U 02014B 02092.36981260 .09613517 85414-5 53082-3 0 355
2 27398 42.3705 338.3135 0022793 194.7669 165.2562 16.39891128 1267
Shenzhou 3 r 10.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 d 20 156 x 121 km
1 27398U 02014B 02092.91615318 .52241298 92208-5 38239-3 0 362
2 27398 42.3878 334.5972 0026665 66.6806 292.9315 16.50474552 1352
Note: The final elset was posted only a couple of hours ago and is
for an epoch 13 hours later than the previous one. It suggests
that this lasted much longer than SpaceCom or I expected - indeed
SpaceCom's final notice gives a decay time almost 5 hours earlier
with an uncertainty of only 7 minutes. I find that a reasonable
solution is possible over the final orbits if the effective drag
coefficient decreased in line with that for a 15m long object.
In that case, my prediction over the final orbits runs:
(..See Decay Watch page for more elsets)
Shenzhou 3 r 10.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 d 20 176 x 144 km
1 27398U 02014B 02092.55241301 .09836199 55501-1 30184-3 0 90339
2 27398 42.3797 337.0700 0024579 198.9643 160.9440 16.42249573 1299
Shenzhou 3 r 10.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 d 20 155 x 133 km
1 27398U 02014B 02092.79525197 .16124364 18134+0 19803-3 0 90339
2 27398 42.3783 335.4242 0017353 200.8897 159.0392 16.48211367 1339
Shenzhou 3 r 10.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 d 20 138 x 123 km
1 27398U 02014B 02092.91626546 .30046924 93491+0 17976-3 0 90332
2 27398 42.3769 334.5976 0011670 201.8568 158.0934 16.53391609 1356
Shenzhou 3 r 10.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 d 20 119 x 111 km
1 27398U 02014B 02092.97658338 1.13916813 50000+2 32054-3 0 90332
2 27398 42.3755 334.1825 0006083 202.3425 157.6310 16.59296469 1368
Decay occurs northbound soon after the start of the last of these
revs, to the W of the Hawaiian Is.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Apr 03 2002 - 14:20:46 EST