I have revised my estimated post OMS-2 elements:
1 99999U 02094.95310089 .00025948 12201-4 18433-4 0 10
2 99999 51.6368 61.4230 0011454 285.1487 252.4856 16.17009401 03
This revision results from improvements in my ISS lift-off time
algorithm, which now indicates a later launch than my previous estimate:
Launch Coplanar Lift-off
Date UTC UTC
-----------------------------------
2002 Apr 04 22:16:04 22:12:52
2002 Apr 05 21:52:24 21:50:22
2002 Apr 06 21:28:44 21:24:33
2002 Apr 07 21:05:04 21:02:03
2002 Apr 08 20:41:24 20:36:14
2002 Apr 09 20:17:43 20:13:44
2002 Apr 10 19:54:02 19:51:14
2002 Apr 11 19:30:21 19:25:25
2002 Apr 12 19:06:40 19:02:55
2002 Apr 13 18:42:58 18:40:25
The new algorithm is based on my finding that the difference between the
coplanar time and the preferred lift-off time for a flight-day 3
rendezvous correlates strongly linearly with the target spacecraft's
contemporaneous argument of latitude.
The new algorithm predicts 12 of the last 15 Mir and ISS lift-offs to
within a couple of seconds. One prediction is accurate to within 10 s.
The remaining 2 launches are predicted to within 1 or 2 minutes.
I intend to further study the launches that do not fit the algorithm, in
an effort to derive a more general and reliable solution. I will hold
off on issuing revised software until then. I am unusually busy with
work, so I cannot predict when that will be.
Ted Molczan
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Apr 01 2002 - 21:51:27 EST