RE: NROL-91 speculation

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:35:46 -0400
The NRO has announced that the planned time of launch on September 24, 2022 is 21:53 UTC.

The NOTAMS will define the search orbit. 

In the meantime, here are a couple of possibilities based on the two previous launches in the series.

If NROL-91 will be a repeat of NROL-71 that launched USA 290, then this would be its orbit a few hours after launch:

                                                         371 X 401 km
1 91998U          22268.09177083  .00004051  00000-0  50000-4 0    03
2 91998  73.6550  44.3683 0021663 129.3014 281.4976 15.59730744    02

The RAAN would be 89.7 deg east of USA 290. That happens to be close to my earlier guess of 90 deg east.

The above is derived from elements that Scott Tilley produced from radio observations of USA 290:

1 74008U          19019.97857950  .00004051  00000-0  50000-4 0    01
2 74008  73.6550 118.7967 0021663 129.3014 281.4976 15.59730744    06

If NROL-91 will be a repeat of NROL-82 that launched USA 314, then this would be its orbit a few hours after launch:

                                                         519 X 758 km
1 91999U          22268.10354167  .00000438  00000-0  50000-4 0    01
2 91999  98.0546  35.4062 0169852  86.6649 330.9798 14.76209142    06

The above is derived from elements that Cees Bassa produced from optical observations of USA 314:

1 99596U          21117.05771367  .00000438  00000-0  50000-4 0    03
2 99596  98.0546 230.2670 0169852  86.6649 330.9798 14.76209142    07

Ted Molczan


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Received on Fri Sep 16 2022 - 20:36:51 UTC

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