RE: CB Obs September 16/17, 2021: Fixed video observations

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2021 09:58:55 -0400
Cees Bassa wrote:

> Two unknowns were seen. Fitting a circular orbit to the 99603/21759A
> observations yields an altitude of 622 km at 97.88 degrees. For
> 99604/21759B a circular orbit yields 590 km at 54.99 deg. I have not
> yet checked if these match recent classified launches.

> 99604 21 759B   4171 G 20210916191229796 17 25 0036656+424158 37 S
> 99604 21 759B   4171 G 20210916191232855 17 25 0040159+415638 37 S
> 99604 21 759B   4171 G 20210916191234515 17 25 0041972+413228 37 S
> 99604 21 759B   4171 G 20210916191235775 17 25 0043328+411393 37 S

The orbit of the second object correlates with the following launch:

USA 316          2021-052A 48846
USA 317          2021-052B 48847
USA 318          2021-052C 48848
MINOTAUR 1 R/B   2021-052D 48849

Here is a zero-decay rate guess that fits the observations and passes the launch site several
minutes after lift-off, which occurred on 2021 Jun 15 at 13:35 UTC.

                                                         600 X 602 km
1 99604U 21759B   21259.80034486  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    07
2 99604  55.0000 219.9570 0001000   0.0000  84.1413 14.89050000    02

Here is a high-drag alternative:

                                                         597 X 599 km
1 99604U 21759B   21259.80034486  .00010230  00000-0  10500-2 0    01
2 99604  55.0000 219.9932 0001000   0.0000  84.0951 14.90000000    07

Ted Molczan

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Received on Fri Sep 17 2021 - 09:00:14 UTC

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