Progress M-29M launch orbit estimations

Hi all;

A Soyuz-U rocket is scheduled to launch the Progress M-29M Spacecraft
tomorrow 2015/10/01 at 16:49:40 UTC. The launch will occur from Baikonur
Kosmodrome's Gagarin's pad. The vehicle will fly on the fast 6 hour
renzezvous trajectory.
Docking is aimed to be 2015/10/01 _at_ 22:54:34 UTC +- 3 min.

The last elements available on Celestrak of the ISS are:

ISS (ZARYA)
1 25544U 98067A   15273.22654881  .00010958  00000-0  17290-3 0  9999
2 25544  51.6434 279.7010 0006035 343.6456 114.8684 15.54059077964381

Orbit estimations:


About 9 minutes after launch, just after orbit injection we have:

PROGRESS-M 29M #0                                        189 X 228 km
1 70000U 15500A   15274.70811343 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    06
2 70000  51.6434 272.2651 0029093  74.8539  12.0646 16.24113271    03

At 19:35:40 UTC the first maneuver will occur. This TLE is valid from this
time till 18:10:44 UTC:

PROGRESS-M 29M #1                                        226 X 274 km
1 70001U 15501A   15274.73380903 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    04
2 70001  51.6433 272.1234 0036219 219.6913  17.5518 16.09007788    08

At 18:10:44 UTC the second maneuver will occur. This TLE is valid from this
time till the next maneuver, at ~18:53 UTC:

PROGRESS-M 29M #2                                        268 X 301 km
1 70002U 15502A   15274.75834491 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    04
2 70002  51.6435 271.9909 0024198 339.2452  40.1915 15.96387573    08

At 18:53 UTC the third maneuver will occur. The TLE should ve valid till
fourth maneuver.
Sadly the TsUP did not make available the delta-v data for the third and
fourth burns, because the will be calculated and uploaded to the spacecraft
once in orbit, taking accout of the orbit injectoion errors of the Soyuz-U
rocket.

PROGRESS-M 29M #3                                        298 X 375 km
1 70003U 15503A   15274.78751157 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    06
2 70003  51.6438 271.8362 0057059 195.7450 351.4051 15.77815440    06

I've reached the conclusion that the spacecraft shoud make its final burn
at the apogee at about ~21:19 UTC for reach the ISS at docking time. This
TLE is valid from this time till docking time:

PROGRESS-M 29M #4                                        374 X 404 km
1 70004U 15504A   15274.88265046 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    06
2 70004  51.6441 271.3447 0022283 354.3123  13.6289 15.59449510    02


Once docked, we get:

PROGRESS-M 29M docked                                    401 X 409 km
1 70005U 15504A   15274.95456019 0.00011465  00000-0  17290-3 0    07
2 70005  51.6434 271.0844 0006029 350.0111  62.5907 15.54098679    04

Basically the "docked" TLE only ISS's TLE with adapted epoch and NORAD
ID/Int.Des.


Be Good!!


Jon.



-- 
Jon, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque Country.
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