Figuring out Cosmos 2495

From: Allen Thomson via Seesat-l <>
Date: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 14:03:03 -0700
This is really OT, but I'll drop it in and ask for any responses to be off list.

I've been following the Cosmos 2495 discussion with considerable interest as it relates to what I like to call applied epistemology. That is, how did people initially reach conclusions about what the Colorado sighting was or wasn't and how did those conclusions come to be confirmed, modified or refuted by subsequent evidence and analysis? The various posts on the subject seem to be rich in relevant material, which is why I'm asking.

For those really into such stuff, I'd think this might be something that could serve as a case study in Bayesian(*) analysis -- what were the "prior"
 assessments of the likelihood of various hypotheses (slow meteor, C2495 reentry vehicle, C2495 debris, other) and how did they get changed as more information came in and/or got processed?

(*)Wikipedia has several articles on Bayesian methods, e.g.
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Received on Thu Sep 11 2014 - 16:15:35 UTC

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