Ted, Thank you for good analysis. > It is necessary to review the previous eight Kobal't-M launches to learn as much as possible about the debris jettisoned prior to the de-orbit burn. Of particular interest is the typical time of jettison relative the de-orbit burn, the delta-V of separation, and the ballistic coefficient. The number of pieces of debris catalogued has ranged between zero and three. The zeros may have been the result of decay before cataloguing could occur. For Kosmos 2445 (33439U) the landing time was estimated 23 Feb 2009 16:15 UTC. The estimate should be reliable as the descent and landing was observed by local citizens with some images taken. Two debris elements (33969 and 33970) seem to separate several hours before the descent. Jonathan calculated the separation time to be 13:30 UTC. I found closest distance between the two at 08:25 UTC. Minimal distance between 33439 and either of the fragments cannot be calculated reliably. For Kosmos 2427 (31595U) the landing time was estimated 22 Aug 2007 21:00 UTC. Meanwhile multiple Russian language reports on descent available at http://www.forum-volgograd.ru/showthread.php?t=87884 http://v102.ru/accidents/2277.html http://www.starlab.ru/showthread.php?t=9396 http://www.ufolog.ru/forum/yaf_postst504_Samara-22-08-07.aspx with observation times at 20:43-20:47 DMV (17:43-17:47 UTC) which matches the ground track of Kosmos 2427. Attempts to obtain reasonable separation times between 31595 and debris objects 32048 and 32049 were not successful. All TCAs are dated August 23 between 02:45 and 05:02 UTC. Igor Lissov _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Wed Sep 10 2014 - 05:25:19 UTC
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