Added the USSTRATCOM TIP message, predicting decay at 04:16 +/- 2 h, which is the final message before decay. Computing the trend using all of today's predictions made during Sep 23 16:25 - Sep 04 01:59 UTC, results in decay on Sep 24 at 04:15 UTC. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v14b.pdf The time of decay of TIP messages corresponds to 10 km altitude, so it is the end of the descent, but remember, the uncertainty remains large. The following is the same as in my previous message. I have no idea when it will decay, but a 10 minute transit of North America would begin no later than about 04:18 UTC, perhaps a couple min earlier. Prospective observers can use the following propagated TLEs: 1 70001U 11267.10901875 .26674733 00000-0 18181-3 0 96408 2 70001 56.9317 262.1851 0003825 314.7110 45.2579 16.53214707109188 1 70002U 11267.16940316 1.39272225 00000-0 41998-3 0 96405 2 70002 56.9300 261.8783 0001925 314.8483 45.1360 16.59222312109199 Approximate ground track, generated from earlier propagated elsets: Time Lat Long Alt-km ----------------------------------------- 04:16:30 45.190 N 124.306 W 88.091 04:17:00 46.497 N 122.093 W 88.293 04:17:30 47.754 N 119.768 W 88.487 04:18:00 48.956 N 117.325 W 88.671 04:18:30 50.098 N 114.759 W 88.842 04:19:00 51.174 N 112.066 W 89.000 04:19:30 52.179 N 109.244 W 89.142 04:20:00 53.107 N 106.291 W 89.266 04:20:30 53.951 N 103.209 W 89.372 04:21:00 54.707 N 100.002 W 89.458 04:21:30 55.368 N 96.677 W 89.523 04:22:00 55.929 N 93.244 W 89.565 04:22:30 56.384 N 89.717 W 89.585 04:23:00 56.729 N 86.113 W 89.581 04:23:30 56.961 N 82.451 W 89.552 04:24:00 57.077 N 78.754 W 89.499 04:24:30 57.076 N 75.045 W 89.422 04:25:00 56.958 N 71.348 W 89.319 04:25:30 56.724 N 67.687 W 89.191 04:26:00 56.378 N 64.083 W 89.039 Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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