I concur with Paul on the timing. Saw it from downtown San Antonio at the Scobee Planetarium. Had a crowd watching. Very nice flash before going into shadow. Sincerely, Bryan Tobias On Sep 23, 2011, at 8:34 PM, PAUL MALEY <pdmaley@yahoo.com> wrote: > UARS seen tonite Sep 24 at 01:18UT from Clear Lake City TX. I recorded video beginning at 12 deg elevation, azimuth 244 as UARS was at a slant range of about 352 miles. A normally terrible phase angle. However, in real time I was on the phone with my sister who I directed to an observing spot in San Antonio which experienced a nearly overhead pass. She saw it simultaneously while I videotaped a sunlit pass from 01h17m49s to 01h18m48s when it entered the earth's shadow. Variations occurred at 9s, 9s, 13s, 7s and 7s intervals during that time. > > Paul Maley > pdmaley@yahoo.com > Paul D. Maley > > > email: pdmaley@yahoo.com > > > ________________________________ > From: "seesat-l-request@satobs.org" <seesat-l-request@satobs.org> > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 7:00 AM > Subject: Seesat-l Digest, Vol 20, Issue 23 > > Send Seesat-l mailing list submissions to > seesat-l@satobs.org > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > seesat-l-request@satobs.org > > You can reach the person managing the list at > seesat-l-owner@satobs.org > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of Seesat-l digest..." > > > Today's Topics: > > 1. Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds > (alain.figer@club-internet.fr) > 2. Re: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 > seconds (Leo Barhorst) > 3. RE: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 > seconds (Derek C Breit) > 4. Theirry Legault's UARS movie makes the news (David Tiller) > 5. 2011SEP21-22.OBS (Russell Eberst) > 6. UARS Notam (Satcom) > 7. UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) > 8. UARS decay Update (Harro Zimmer) > 9. UARS not seen (Leo Barhorst) > 10. Neither here (Re: UARS not seen) (Marco Langbroek) > 11. RE: UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) > 12. UARS: Satevo decay estimates (Ted Molczan) > 13. UARS Not Seen (Christian Kj?rnet) > 14. UARS: Satevo decay estimates (Ted Molczan) > 15. RE: UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) > 16. RE: UARS Reentry moving later (Ted Molczan) > 17. FW: UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) > 18. no luck with AEHF (Kevin Fetter) > 19. BY C 092311 (Brad Young) > 20. UARS: Evolution of Decay Predictions (Ted Molczan) > 21. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Derek C Breit) > 22. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Derek C Breit) > 23. 11940.. AEHF... Measuring tomorrow afternnon.. (Derek C Breit) > 24. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Ted Molczan) > 25. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Ted Molczan) > 26. IGS 6A (IGS-O4) was successfully launched (Makoto Kamada) > 27. SATOBS 2011 September 23 (Peter Wakelin) > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message: 1 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:36:26 +0200 (CEST) > From: <alain.figer@club-internet.fr> > Subject: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds > To: Seesat-L <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>, Bram Dorreman > <bram.dorreman@skynet.be> > Message-ID: <31265000.162082.1316698586129.JavaMail.www@wsfrf1120> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" > > Hi all, > On sept 14th, I took 2 series of photographs of the nice flashing satellite Ajisai (EGP) 1986-61A, while it passed by Beta Ophiuci (21h04.5 UT) then by Eta Scuti (21h06.6 UT). At first glance, the flashing pattern varies significantly, because a lot of flashes are either missing or visible, however it was rather easy to discover that a same pattern is repeating every 2.2 seconds or so. The accuracy on this photometric period (2.2 plus or minus 0.15 second) was limited by a 'rough' calculus of the angular speed of the satellite. I couldn't measure it directly on the photographs as usual (each pic being of 4 second exposure time) because only dots are visible so that I cannot define accurately the very beginning and the very end of the 4-sec track. Otherwise it would be easy to guarantee a period at 0.01 sec, due to the sharpness of the dots. > I issued as examples, 2 such photos on my Flickr's site : > http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044892/in/photostream > http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044856/in/photostream/ > > Alain Figer, France > 2.128? E ; 48.673?N ; 170 m asl > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/73eac83c/attachment.html > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 2 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:44:23 +0200 > From: "Leo Barhorst" <l.barhorst@upcmail.nl> > Subject: Re: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 > seconds > To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <8B66D72978D2441D8151FFE39F201196@GEBRUIK15MDZ2G> > Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="UTF-8"; > reply-type=original > > The photo IMG_3518 perfectly shows what can be seen visualy. > Three flashes and then 1 missing. > See PPAS for more obs. > > Greetings, > Leo Barhorst > > -----Oorspronkelijk bericht----- > From: alain.figer@club-internet.fr > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 3:36 PM > To: Seesat-L ; Bram Dorreman > Subject: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds > > Hi all, > On sept 14th, I took 2 series of photographs of the nice flashing satellite > Ajisai (EGP) 1986-61A, while it passed by Beta Ophiuci (21h04.5 UT) then by > Eta Scuti (21h06.6 UT). At first glance, the flashing pattern varies > significantly, because a lot of flashes are either missing or visible, > however it was rather easy to discover that a same pattern is repeating > every 2.2 seconds or so. The accuracy on this photometric period (2.2 plus > or minus 0.15 second) was limited by a 'rough' calculus of the angular speed > of the satellite. I couldn't measure it directly on the photographs as usual > (each pic being of 4 second exposure time) because only dots are visible so > that I cannot define accurately the very beginning and the very end of the > 4-sec track. Otherwise it would be easy to guarantee a period at 0.01 sec, > due to the sharpness of the dots. > I issued as examples, 2 such photos on my Flickr's site : > http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044892/in/photostream > http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044856/in/photostream/ > > Alain Figer, France > 2.128? E ; 48.673?N ; 170 m asl > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/73eac83c/attachment.html > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 3 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:08:11 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: RE: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 > seconds > To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <AC69BAEE92864FF7BE21B78254E0F59C@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Forgive me in advance.. I know nothing of flash period observations.. > > Consider this as a question.. > > > > Define visually.. Doesn't match what I can see with the binocsulars. > > Doesn't agree at all with what I have videoed and posted to my website.. > > See everything titled EGP on.. > http://www.poyntsource.com/New/Gallery.htm > > Scroll to the bottom.. Two Movies, 5 stacked JPG's .. > > Question.. Does the 2.2s period fit with the two times EGP "goes off" > (blinking madly)in the "Disco Ball in Space"?? > > That's the only pattern I have seen in EGP.. and with close inspection it is > more than two times as it ramps up and ramps down as it passes the same > azimuth as the Sun.. > > > If it is desired to have images that can determine both the speed and the > flash pattern, let's talk because I could acquire them for you.. > > Derek > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org > [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf > Of Leo Barhorst > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 9:44 AM > To: SeeSat-L@satobs.org > Subject: Re: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds > > The photo IMG_3518 perfectly shows what can be seen visualy. > Three flashes and then 1 missing. > See PPAS for more obs. > > Greetings, > Leo Barhorst > > -----Oorspronkelijk bericht----- > From: alain.figer@club-internet.fr > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 3:36 PM > To: Seesat-L ; Bram Dorreman > Subject: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds > > Hi all, > On sept 14th, I took 2 series of photographs of the nice flashing satellite > Ajisai (EGP) 1986-61A, while it passed by Beta Ophiuci (21h04.5 UT) then by > Eta Scuti (21h06.6 UT). At first glance, the flashing pattern varies > significantly, because a lot of flashes are either missing or visible, > however it was rather easy to discover that a same pattern is repeating > every 2.2 seconds or so. The accuracy on this photometric period (2.2 plus > or minus 0.15 second) was limited by a 'rough' calculus of the angular speed > > of the satellite. I couldn't measure it directly on the photographs as usual > > (each pic being of 4 second exposure time) because only dots are visible so > that I cannot define accurately the very beginning and the very end of the > 4-sec track. Otherwise it would be easy to guarantee a period at 0.01 sec, > due to the sharpness of the dots. > I issued as examples, 2 such photos on my Flickr's site : > http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044892/in/photostream > http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044856/in/photostream/ > > Alain Figer, France > 2.128? E ; 48.673?N ; 170 m asl > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/73ea > c83c/attachment.html > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > > ----- > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3912 - Release Date: 09/22/11 > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 4 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:09:06 +0000 > From: David Tiller <dtiller@captechconsulting.com> > Subject: Theirry Legault's UARS movie makes the news > To: "SeeSat-L@satobs.org" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: > <0B3FBC5C98E107478AB5858BA8391C2303F31B2D@email.captechventures.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > > Theirry Legault's UARS movie made slashdot.org and the BBC! > > http://science.slashdot.org/story/11/09/22/1720230/New-Images-of-Tumbling-US-Satellite-From-Theirry-Legaullt > > http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15009337 > > > Congrats, Theirry! > > -- > David Tiller > Lead Consultant/Architect | CapTech > (804) 304-0638 | dtiller@captechconsulting.com<mailto:dtiller@captechconsulting.com> > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/3153a5ea/attachment.html > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 5 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:18:24 +0000 > From: Russell Eberst <eberst@blueyonder.co.uk> > Subject: 2011SEP21-22.OBS > To: "Bjoern Gimle"@GlocalNet, Ted Molczan <tedmolczan@rogers.com>, > Peter Wakelin <peter@ascotrig.demon.co.uk>, Pierre NEIRINCK > <pierre-neirinck@wanadoo.fr>, Mike McCants <mmccants@prismnet.com>, > yamada@ysc.go.jp, Greg Roberts <grr@telkomsa.net>, Seesat List > <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>, BramDorreman <bram.dorreman@skynet.be> > Message-ID: <4E7B8A00.8090701@blueyonder.co.uk> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed > > > SATOBS > > 2420 1109 0.211 1204 > 21 > 1002701 190345.00 202042+400545 5.0 5.0 0 S > 9906401 190609.35 230524+490201 5.4 5.4 0 S > 8006902 191825.70 032618+551412 3.9 3.9 0 S > 0702702 192118.35 031645+615107 4.2 6.1 0 I > 9607201 194939.70 231623+445205 3.2 3.2 0 S > 9607201 195016.21 000345+580845 3.4 3.4 0 S > 0504201 195407.50 055553+454320 1.7 1.7 0 S > 0501602 195845.01 194741+383529 4.0 4.0 0 S > 9202301 200332.66 220353+475917 5.1 6.2 0.5 R > 9805503 200623.68 040514+375200 6.6 6.6 0 S > 7711702 200946.91 043600+532231 7.4 7.4 0 S > 8704308 201250.26 201406+334105 8.3 8.3 0 S > 9805501 202203.80 214311+323259 7.6 7.6 0 S > 9805501 202232.82 221852+461726 7.7 7.7 0 S > 0300902 202457.58 035150+520754 5.6 5.6 0 S > 0300902 202531.70 053229+542054 5.9 5.9 0 S > 8401204 202926.50 221812+370404 4.5 4.5 0 S > 7708702 203828.65 040241+535325 6.8 6.8 0 S > 0004701 204203.36 060214+444139 5.9 5.9 0 S > 0103202 204414.12 070251+720125 4.2 4.2 0 S > 9801001 204711.51 062213+562253 6.1 6.1 0 S > 8401201 205029.14 175544+720038 5.9 7.3 2 R > 7905001 205517.46 220723+325545 5.7 7.1 20 R > 9602401 205706.51 235657+503333 4.9 4.9 0 S > 8401206 210448.65 203204+343026 7.4 7.4 0 E > 7704401 210919.16 041609+375241 7.1 7.9 4 R > 0906602 211308.69 101047+791144 4.3 4.3 0 S > 7301502 211838.69 054217+560847 8.0 8.0 0 S > 1006207 211917.03 064234+571523 6.4 6.4 0 S > 9607201 212402.89 180527+095125 5.9 5.9 0 S > 0504201 212909.14 150159+561045 2.2 2.2 0 S > 8601401 213247.10 045526+583352 7.7 7.7 0 S > 8103302 213855.29 082522+684056 5.8 5.8 0 S > 22 > 9602905 034639.50 044827+184451 4.6 4.6 0 S > 7504301 034826.30 093216+721908 7.3 7.3 0 S > 0702701 035251.21 060434+360120 5.8 5.8 0 S > 0702703 035314.79 063153+374638 5.9 5.9 0 S > 0501801 040044.33 002836+434014 6.1 6.1 0 S > 8108101 040343.30 104326+573744 6.8 6.8 0 S > 9802304 040846.62 025328+304127 6.6 6.6 0 S > 7603801 041746.69 015315+300911 5.7 5.7 0 S > 7603801 041800.50 024635+250313 5.3 5.3 0 S > 9704301 042243.59 171552+604325 7.5 7.5 0 S > 9602904 042853.11 050515+490429 5.2 5.2 0 S > 9004901 043303.20 041256-162526 4.1 4.1 0 S > 8410802 043607.35 005322+602848 2.2 2.2 0 S > 9405701 043748.75 231845+600935 6.3 7.5 0 I > 1004601 044247.51 000957+442545 4.5 4.5 0 S > 7406301 045113.99 012101+372855 5.8 7.2 0 I > 999 > > Total observations (2011): 3703 > best wishes, > Russell Eberst > 55.9486N, 3.1383W, 150 feet = 46 metres above MSL > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 6 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 22:31:55 +0100 > From: "Satcom" <john@satcom.freeserve.co.uk> > Subject: UARS Notam > To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Cc: Bev M Ewen-Smith <info@coaa.co.uk> > Message-ID: <002601cc796f$0d3faf70$6ed6fea9@DELLMASTER> > Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="iso-8859-1"; > reply-type=original > > 1/2095 - .. SPECIAL NOTICE .. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL 1109252359 UTC. > AIRCRAFT ARE ADVISED THAT A POTENTIAL HAZARD MAY OCCUR DUE TO REENTRY OF > SATELLITE UARS INTO THE EARTH apos;S ATMOSPHERE. FURTHER NOTAMS WILL BE > ISSUED IF SPECIFIC INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. IN THE INTEREST OF FLIGHT > SAFETY, IT IS CRITICAL THAT ALL PILOTS/FLIGHT CREW MEMBERS REPORT ANY > OBSERVED FALLING SPACE DEBRIS TO THE APPROPRIATE ATC FACILITY AND INCLUDE > POSITION, ALTITUDE, TIME, AND DIRECTION OF DEBRIS OBSERVED. THE DOMESTIC > EVENTS NETWORK /DEN/ TELEPHONE 202-493-5107, IS THE FAA COORDINATION > FACILITY. WIE UNTIL UFN. CREATED: 21 SEP 23:24 2011 > > Regards > > John > > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 7 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 14:35:55 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: UARS Reentry moving later > To: "Seesat List" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <020705F136FE4C889F366CBA139D2CB5@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > > > 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC ? 9 hours > > > The graphic shows my location is down to 3 orbits later.. > > Of course the question is where is perigee?? > > > Derek > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 8 > Date: 22 Sep 2011 21:40 GMT > From: "Harro Zimmer" <Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de> > Subject: UARS decay Update > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org>, "Leonard Divid" <newsspace@aol.com> > Message-ID: <1R6qzs-1jWwl60@fwd23.t-online.de> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > 1991-063B UARS (# 2170 USSTRATCOM have > released today their forecast issued at > 21 September, 20:28 UTC: > 23 September 20:58 UTC +/- 24 hours > ascending over 31.9?N, 331.1?E > (North Atlantic) > > My new prediction based on an selection > of the ELSETs 11263.927... -11265.7075... > vers with program MPM + REENTRY the > decay on : > 23 September, 20:22 UTC +/- 03 hours > descending over 50.52?S 188,67?E > (South Atlantic). > > > Harro > > Harro Zimmer - Berlin Germany > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/8ffda69c/attachment.html > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 9 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 23:55:41 +0200 > From: "Leo Barhorst" <l.barhorst@upcmail.nl> > Subject: UARS not seen > To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <C6DB6D54CEB64214A7405C7ECD99C0BF@GEBRUIK15MDZ2G> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Just watched the 49 degrees pass at 21:39 UT. Sat was not sun lit. > As expected nothing was seen between 21:30 and 21:50 UT. > Still a day away from predicted decay time. > > Greetings, > Leo Barhorst > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/207a186b/attachment.html > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 10 > Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:06:40 +0200 > From: Marco Langbroek <marco.langbroek@wanadoo.nl> > Subject: Neither here (Re: UARS not seen) > To: Leo Barhorst <l.barhorst@upcmail.nl>, "satelliet lijst (SeeSat)" > <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <4E7BB170.9050701@wanadoo.nl> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed > > Op 22-9-2011 23:55, Leo Barhorst schreef: > > Just watched the 49 degrees pass at 21:39 UT. Sat was not sun lit. > > As expected nothing was seen between 21:30 and 21:50 UT. > > Still a day away from predicted decay time. > > Also tried it here at 21:41 pass (shadow pass) when it would pass just below > UMI. Difficult conditions: thin cloud cover but stars visible in 10x50 bino. > Nothing seen, so it isn't glowing yet. > > - Marco > > ----- > Dr Marco Langbroek - SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands. > e-mail: sattrackcam@wanadoo.nl > > Cospar 4353 (Leiden): 52.15412 N, 4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL > Cospar 4354 (De Wilck): 52.11685 N, 4.56016 E (WGS84), -2 m ASL > Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com > ----- > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 11 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:46:54 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later > To: "'Seesat List'" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <2F794AAE53B1487483E6F4456C55B79C@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Perigee works! > > Perigee is roughly near the equator as UARS heads for the USA.. > > Texas to the Great Lakes 2 orbits later than the aero.org prediction or 14 > degrees up in the East for me 3 orbits late. Perigee is as it clears the > horizon.. > > I am sure I am doing something wrong, but that's what Heavensat shows with > today's elset.. > > My only point is I am liking my chances more and more.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org > [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf > Of Derek C Breit > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 2:36 PM > To: Seesat List > Subject: UARS Reentry moving later > > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > > > 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC ? 9 hours > > > The graphic shows my location is down to 3 orbits later.. > > Of course the question is where is perigee?? > > > Derek > > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > ----- > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3912 - Release Date: 09/22/11 > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 12 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:50:06 -0400 > From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> > Subject: UARS: Satevo decay estimates > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <002601cc7979$f9930f70$ecb92e50$@rogers.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > Propagating USSTRATCOM's TLEs of epoch on Sep 22, through 19:55 UTC, using Satevo 0.51, yields decay early on Sep 24 > UTC. The values jump around between 00:35 and 01:28 UTC, depending on the TLE. > > UARS would have to remain in orbit until Sep 24 at about 01:00 UTC for North American's to have any chance of seeing the > decay. That now seems more likely than it did this morning, but it's too soon to know the revolution of decay. > > Ted Molczan > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 13 > Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 01:20:48 +0200 > From: Christian Kj?rnet <ckjarnet@broadpark.no> > Subject: UARS Not Seen > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Message-ID: <CAA18F70.145B3%ckjarnet@broadpark.no> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 > > Just observed a 32 degree pass at 23:13 UT in clear sky. Sat was in the > Earth's shadow. Nothing was seen. Still too early. > > Regards, > > -- > Christian Kj?rnet > Kongsberg, Norway COSPAR 5059 > > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 14 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:44:04 -0400 > From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> > Subject: UARS: Satevo decay estimates > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <002801cc7981$83aff270$8b0fd750$@rogers.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > USSTRATCOM has just issued another TLE; Satevo propagates it to decay on Sep 24 near 00:02 UTC. > > The following table shows the evolution in predicted decay over the past day: > > TLE Epoch Satevo Decay Estimate > 2011 Sep 21 17:26:20 2011 Sep 23 20:54:10 > 2011 Sep 21 17:26:19 2011 Sep 23 21:55:55 > 2011 Sep 21 18:54:45 2011 Sep 23 21:30:57 > 2011 Sep 21 21:51:33 2011 Sep 23 22:21:44 > 2011 Sep 22 03:44:57 2011 Sep 24 01:19:02 > 2011 Sep 22 08:09:47 2011 Sep 23 19:13:19 > 2011 Sep 22 11:06:13 2011 Sep 23 20:59:24 > 2011 Sep 22 11:06:14 2011 Sep 24 00:43:51 > 2011 Sep 22 12:34:26 2011 Sep 24 00:42:21 > 2011 Sep 22 16:58:53 2011 Sep 24 00:36:05 > 2011 Sep 22 16:58:53 2011 Sep 24 01:28:22 > 2011 Sep 22 19:55:04 2011 Sep 24 00:35:24 > 2011 Sep 22 22:51:09 2011 Sep 24 00:01:46 > > Ted Molczan > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 15 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:09:44 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later > To: "'Seesat List'" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <6EE6C530F303455E81B72AE434D2DD02@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > The update here.. > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > now shows zero chance for the USA.. > > BOOO!!! > > :-) > > 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ? 7 hours > > It's becoming beyond my ability to follow along.. > > Derek > > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 16 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 21:47:30 -0400 > From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> > Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <003201cc7992$c1df6150$459e23f0$@rogers.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Derek Breit wrote: > > > The update here.. > > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > > > now shows zero chance for the USA.. > > > > 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ? 7 hours > > You have misunderstood the report. The ground track shows it decaying at the above time, over the South Pacific, on a > track moving toward Mexico, the South Central U.S.A, the North East of the U.S.A and Canada, across the Atlantic, then > over the U.K. and Central Europe. So, it need only survive a bit longer, to given millions of folks a definite slim > chance at seeing it. > > But keep in mind that the stated uncertainty is +/- 7 hours. > > Ted Molczan > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 17 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:11:55 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: FW: UARS Reentry moving later > To: "Seesat List" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <44F311B113F141B196485601C7645AA3@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:07 PM > To: 'Ted Molczan'; 'seesat-l@satobs.org' > Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later > > Actually it doesn't.. hit refresh and it shows it decaying over the Western > Pacific North of Australia now... Descending.. > > Worse it doesn't show any of the later tracks coming close to the USA.. > > What I am looking at is attached for you Ted.. > > I vastly preferred the tracks you describe, but they went POOF! Tell me it > is an error on my satellite modem or my computer.. Pease.. > > Mind you Heavensat still shows very similar paths to what I was watching > using the newest elset.. Same as listed in the graphic.. 19:55 9/22 > > Either way.. Whether it has already happened or will in the near future, it > will at some point be beyond my ability to follow along. I am prepared to > video either shortly before 8 PDT low in the East, or even a later pass in > the West and / or alert many in North America so they can do it.. > > "Y'all just handle your business and let me know what I might need to know." > > I'll just step outside and hunt for AEHF.. > > :-)) > > Derek > > PS.. Just hit refresh again and the "Good" graphic is now back.. Definitely > time for me to go observe some sats.. > > Still attaching what I captured from my screen moments ago as proof I am not > crazy.. > > -----Original Message----- > From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org > [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf > Of Ted Molczan > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 6:48 PM > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later > > Derek Breit wrote: > > > The update here.. > > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > > > now shows zero chance for the USA.. > > > > 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ? 7 hours > > You have misunderstood the report. The ground track shows it decaying at the > above time, over the South Pacific, on a > track moving toward Mexico, the South Central U.S.A, the North East of the > U.S.A and Canada, across the Atlantic, then > over the U.K. and Central Europe. So, it need only survive a bit longer, to > given millions of folks a definite slim > chance at seeing it. > > But keep in mind that the stated uncertainty is +/- 7 hours. > > Ted Molczan > > > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 18 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:29:35 -0700 (PDT) > From: Kevin Fetter <kfetter@yahoo.com> > Subject: no luck with AEHF > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Message-ID: > <1316744975.59339.YahooMailClassic@web161601.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii > > I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. > > Could be to faint. for me to see. > > Kevin > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 19 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:03:04 -0700 (PDT) > From: Brad Young <allenb_young@yahoo.com> > Subject: BY C 092311 > To: SeeSat <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: > <1316746984.11236.YahooMailNeo@web30005.mail.mud.yahoo.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Also no sign of UARS on 80 deg pass. No OFEQ 7 seen - PPAS and unids later. > > 17997 87 043A ? 8336 E 20110923013323680 17 25 2140956+103928 28 S > 17997 87 043A ? 8336 E 20110923013330060 17 25 2142107+093182 48 S > 21949 92 023A ? 8336 E 20110923020828600 17 25 1938925-162771 28 S > 21949 92 023A ? 8336 E 20110923020838080 17 25 1939175-140057 28 S > ? > > COSPAR 8336 = TULSA1 > 36.139208,-95.983429 > > > COSPAR 8335 = TULSA2 > +35.8311 -96.1411 1100ft > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/822d8227/attachment.html > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 20 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 23:16:32 -0400 > From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> > Subject: UARS: Evolution of Decay Predictions > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <004101cc799f$31f0d710$95d28530$@rogers.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > I have plotted the evolution of the decay predictions, to show the gradual convergence on the actual date and time. > > Most of the data consists of Satevo 0.51 propagations of USSTRATCOM TLEs, but it also includes those of USSTRATCOM, The > Aerospace Corporation, and Harro Zimmer. All were in reasonably close agreement, most of the time. > > The first plot shows the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, it appeared that the decay would occur during Sep 29 - Oct 01 > UTC, but the increased drag associated with high geomagnetic activity during Sep 9-13, advanced the decay by about one > week. > > http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v5a.pdf > > The second version focuses in on the past four days, during which the predicted decay ranged between Sep 23, 14 h and > Sep 24, 07 h UTC. It now seems to have narrowed to Sep 23, 21 h - Sep 24, 03 h UTC. > > http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v5b.pdf > > Ted Molczan > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 21 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:25:39 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > To: <kfetter@yahoo.com>, <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <6489905F01B249DF9AA30B3B5598B6BF@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > AEHF is near the "old prediction " from Classified.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org > [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf > Of Kevin Fetter > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:30 PM > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Subject: no luck with AEHF > > I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. > > Could be to faint. for me to see. > > Kevin > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > ----- > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 22 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:39:27 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > To: "'Derek C Breit'" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com>, > <kfetter@yahoo.com>, <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <65D317B5600A4ACBA58275BB04874DE4@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > Appulse of mag 12 TYC 5234-826-1 at 3:30:41 UT +/- 3 seconds.. > Heavensat says it should have been there at 3:29:39, so 1 min late against > the previous elset, and WAY late against Mike's guess for tonight.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:26 PM > To: 'kfetter@yahoo.com'; 'seesat-l@satobs.org' > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > > AEHF is near the "old prediction " from Classified.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org > [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf > Of Kevin Fetter > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:30 PM > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Subject: no luck with AEHF > > I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. > > Could be to faint. for me to see. > > Kevin > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > ----- > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 23 > Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 21:17:28 -0700 > From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> > Subject: 11940.. AEHF... Measuring tomorrow afternnon.. > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <F6337FFB0DFB4E4FB33BAE4820AC3ECC@BREITIDEASObs> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > I will never be able to measure it off this video, but 11940 is also 1 min > late against the INT elset.. > > This based on the fact that the orientation of AEHF 1 using the old elset > and 11940 using the INT elset matches perfectly on video except that AEHF is > one minute late.. > > If this is useful, great.. Otherwise I doubt I can lift a measurement off > the video of such a dim sat.. > > Either way I wont be able to measure these until tomorrow afternoon, and I > intend on hitting AEHF for the next few days, so I may just skip measuring > it if that is deemed OK (because someone else has it..) > > Night.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:39 PM > To: 'Derek C Breit'; kfetter@yahoo.com; seesat-l@satobs.org > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > > Appulse of mag 12 TYC 5234-826-1 at 3:30:41 UT +/- 3 seconds.. > Heavensat says it should have been there at 3:29:39, so 1 min late against > the previous elset, and WAY late against Mike's guess for tonight.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:26 PM > To: 'kfetter@yahoo.com'; 'seesat-l@satobs.org' > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > > AEHF is near the "old prediction " from Classified.. > > Derek > > -----Original Message----- > From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org > [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf > Of Kevin Fetter > Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:30 PM > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Subject: no luck with AEHF > > I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. > > Could be to faint. for me to see. > > Kevin > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > ----- > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 > > ----- > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 24 > Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:29:52 -0400 > From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <004201cc79a9$708f86b0$51ae9410$@rogers.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > Derek Breit wrote: > > > Appulse of mag 12 TYC 5234-826-1 at 3:30:41 UT +/- 3 seconds.. > > Heavensat says it should have been there at 3:29:39, so 1 min late against > > the previous elset, and WAY late against Mike's guess for tonight.. > > Assuming a direct appulse, and adding the resulting reduction to Kevin's obs 48 hours ago, yields: > > 1 70001U 11266.14630787 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03 > 2 70001 4.6824 277.8581 0351151 234.5568 182.8061 0.94712293 04 > > I offer this is as a preliminary solution, in case anyone else is in a position to observe it tonight. > > Except for an apparently brief manoeuvre on Sep 20, AHEF 1 has not manoeuvred since about Sep 13 UTC, which is > unexpected. It had been on track to achieve synchronous orbit on Oct 03. Why the apparent hiatus? > > Ted Molczan > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 25 > Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:45:49 -0400 > From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> > Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. > To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> > Message-ID: <004301cc79ab$ab263c40$0172b4c0$@rogers.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > Sorry, I sent the wrong elset. Please discard it, and try this one: > > 1 70001U 11266.14630787 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03 > 2 70001 4.6824 277.8581 0336000 234.5568 185.1021 0.94942798 07 > > Ted Molczan > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 26 > Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 17:46:13 +0900 > From: Makoto Kamada <m_kamada@nifty.com> > Subject: IGS 6A (IGS-O4) was successfully launched > To: seesat-l@satobs.org > Message-ID: <4E7C4755.2080600@nifty.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-2022-JP > > IGS 6A (IGS-O4), new reconnaissance satellite of Japan, was successfully launched > from Tanegashima Space Center (TNSC) by H-IIA F19 rocket on 2011-09-23 04:36 UT. > > http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2011/09/20110923_h2af19_j.html > http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20110923/t10015803961000.html > > 27698 2003-009A IGS 1A (IGS-O1) > 27699 2003-009B IGS 1B (IGS-R1) > 36104 2009-066A IGS 5A (IGS-O3) > Local time of ascending node passage: 22:30 > Local time of descending node passage: 10:30 > > 29393 2006-037A IGS 3A (IGS-O2) > 30586 2007-005A IGS 4A (IGS-R2) > 37813? 2011-050A IGS 6A (IGS-O4) should be here > Local time of ascending node passage: 01:30 > Local time of descending node passage: 13:30 > > Makoto Kamada > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 27 > Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:01:55 +0000 > From: Peter Wakelin <peter@ascotrig.demon.co.uk> > Subject: SATOBS 2011 September 23 > To: tedmolczan@rogers.com, mmccants@prismnet.com, > eberst@blueyonder.co.uk, davidbrierley@waitrose.com, > bjorn.gimle@gmail.com, pierre-neirinck@wanadoo.fr, seesat-l@satobs.org > Message-ID: <kJUkILATkFfOFwuv@ascotrig.demon.co.uk> > > > SATOBS > 721010120181109230256293 01 12040582 +15171 1 5 > 721010120181109230258283 01 12040746 +15173 1 5 > 721010220181109230305200 01 12003336 +06554 1 5 123 S > 721010220181109230307540 01 12003645 +07081 1 5 > 721010220181109230309180 01 12003814 +07141 1 5 120 S > 750550220181109230334100 01 12025493 +14036 1 5 > 750550220181109230336090 01 12025681 +14067 1 5 > 750550220181109230338086 01 12025872 +14101 1 5 > 751180320181109230342050 01 12015336 +04319 1 5 > 751180320181109230344040 01 12015540 +04354 1 5 > 751180320181109230346030 01 12015742 +04388 1 5 > 760590120181109230358150 01 12014365 +04398 1 5 > 760590120181109230400140 01 12014565 +04446 1 5 > 760590120181109230402130 01 12014766 +04482 1 5 > 771140120181109230405400 01 12022358 +08458 1 5 > 771140120181109230407390 01 12022558 +08530 1 5 > 771140120181109230409380 01 12022760 +08598 1 5 > 780380120181109230418150 01 12031144 +03155 1 5 > 780380120181109230420140 01 12031343 +03184 1 5 > 780380120181109230422130 01 12031546 +03212 1 5 > 780580120181109230425350 01 12050591 -04087 1 5 > 780580120181109230428090 01 12050847 -04050 1 5 > 780580120181109230429330 01 12050986 -04029 1 5 > 790530320181109230442000 01 12062940 +08357 1 5 > 790860120181109230448250 01 12061551 +00078 1 5 > 790860120181109230449544 01 12061692 +00077 1 5 > 790860120181109230451234 01 12061834 +00077 1 5 > 999 > > What these numbers mean: http://www.satobs.org/position/UKformat.html > > > -- > Peter Wakelin > COSPAR 2018 GUNDLETON, Lat 51.0945N Long 1.1188W 124m > > > ------------------------------ > > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > > > End of Seesat-l Digest, Vol 20, Issue 23 > **************************************** > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110923/ef7d3457/attachment.html > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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