UARS seen tonite Sep 24 at 01:18UT from Clear Lake City TX. I recorded video beginning at 12 deg elevation, azimuth 244 as UARS was at a slant range of about 352 miles. A normally terrible phase angle. However, in real time I was on the phone with my sister who I directed to an observing spot in San Antonio which experienced a nearly overhead pass. She saw it simultaneously while I videotaped a sunlit pass from 01h17m49s to 01h18m48s when it entered the earth's shadow. Variations occurred at 9s, 9s, 13s, 7s and 7s intervals during that time. Paul Maley pdmaley@yahoo.com Paul D. Maley email: pdmaley@yahoo.com ________________________________ From: "seesat-l-request@satobs.org" <seesat-l-request@satobs.org> To: seesat-l@satobs.org Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 7:00 AM Subject: Seesat-l Digest, Vol 20, Issue 23 Send Seesat-l mailing list submissions to seesat-l@satobs.org To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to seesat-l-request@satobs.org You can reach the person managing the list at seesat-l-owner@satobs.org When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific than "Re: Contents of Seesat-l digest..." Today's Topics: 1. Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds (alain.figer@club-internet.fr) 2. Re: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds (Leo Barhorst) 3. RE: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds (Derek C Breit) 4. Theirry Legault's UARS movie makes the news (David Tiller) 5. 2011SEP21-22.OBS (Russell Eberst) 6. UARS Notam (Satcom) 7. UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) 8. UARS decay Update (Harro Zimmer) 9. UARS not seen (Leo Barhorst) 10. Neither here (Re: UARS not seen) (Marco Langbroek) 11. RE: UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) 12. UARS: Satevo decay estimates (Ted Molczan) 13. UARS Not Seen (Christian Kj?rnet) 14. UARS: Satevo decay estimates (Ted Molczan) 15. RE: UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) 16. RE: UARS Reentry moving later (Ted Molczan) 17. FW: UARS Reentry moving later (Derek C Breit) 18. no luck with AEHF (Kevin Fetter) 19. BY C 092311 (Brad Young) 20. UARS: Evolution of Decay Predictions (Ted Molczan) 21. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Derek C Breit) 22. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Derek C Breit) 23. 11940.. AEHF... Measuring tomorrow afternnon.. (Derek C Breit) 24. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Ted Molczan) 25. RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. (Ted Molczan) 26. IGS 6A (IGS-O4) was successfully launched (Makoto Kamada) 27. SATOBS 2011 September 23 (Peter Wakelin) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message: 1 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:36:26 +0200 (CEST) From: <alain.figer@club-internet.fr> Subject: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds To: Seesat-L <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>, Bram Dorreman <bram.dorreman@skynet.be> Message-ID: <31265000.162082.1316698586129.JavaMail.www@wsfrf1120> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Hi all, On sept 14th, I took 2 series of photographs of the nice flashing satellite Ajisai (EGP) 1986-61A, while it passed by Beta Ophiuci (21h04.5 UT) then by Eta Scuti (21h06.6 UT). At first glance, the flashing pattern varies significantly, because a lot of flashes are either missing or visible, however it was rather easy to discover that a same pattern is repeating every 2.2 seconds or so. The accuracy on this photometric period (2.2 plus or minus 0.15 second) was limited by a 'rough' calculus of the angular speed of the satellite. I couldn't measure it directly on the photographs as usual (each pic being of 4 second exposure time) because only dots are visible so that I cannot define accurately the very beginning and the very end of the 4-sec track. Otherwise it would be easy to guarantee a period at 0.01 sec, due to the sharpness of the dots. I issued as examples, 2 such photos on my Flickr's site : http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044892/in/photostream http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044856/in/photostream/ Alain Figer, France 2.128? E ; 48.673?N ; 170 m asl -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/73eac83c/attachment.html ------------------------------ Message: 2 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:44:23 +0200 From: "Leo Barhorst" <l.barhorst@upcmail.nl> Subject: Re: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <8B66D72978D2441D8151FFE39F201196@GEBRUIK15MDZ2G> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="UTF-8"; reply-type=original The photo IMG_3518 perfectly shows what can be seen visualy. Three flashes and then 1 missing. See PPAS for more obs. Greetings, Leo Barhorst -----Oorspronkelijk bericht----- From: alain.figer@club-internet.fr Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 3:36 PM To: Seesat-L ; Bram Dorreman Subject: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds Hi all, On sept 14th, I took 2 series of photographs of the nice flashing satellite Ajisai (EGP) 1986-61A, while it passed by Beta Ophiuci (21h04.5 UT) then by Eta Scuti (21h06.6 UT). At first glance, the flashing pattern varies significantly, because a lot of flashes are either missing or visible, however it was rather easy to discover that a same pattern is repeating every 2.2 seconds or so. The accuracy on this photometric period (2.2 plus or minus 0.15 second) was limited by a 'rough' calculus of the angular speed of the satellite. I couldn't measure it directly on the photographs as usual (each pic being of 4 second exposure time) because only dots are visible so that I cannot define accurately the very beginning and the very end of the 4-sec track. Otherwise it would be easy to guarantee a period at 0.01 sec, due to the sharpness of the dots. I issued as examples, 2 such photos on my Flickr's site : http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044892/in/photostream http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044856/in/photostream/ Alain Figer, France 2.128? E ; 48.673?N ; 170 m asl -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/73eac83c/attachment.html _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ------------------------------ Message: 3 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:08:11 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: RE: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <AC69BAEE92864FF7BE21B78254E0F59C@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Forgive me in advance.. I know nothing of flash period observations.. Consider this as a question.. Define visually.. Doesn't match what I can see with the binocsulars. Doesn't agree at all with what I have videoed and posted to my website.. See everything titled EGP on.. http://www.poyntsource.com/New/Gallery.htm Scroll to the bottom.. Two Movies, 5 stacked JPG's .. Question.. Does the 2.2s period fit with the two times EGP "goes off" (blinking madly)in the "Disco Ball in Space"?? That's the only pattern I have seen in EGP.. and with close inspection it is more than two times as it ramps up and ramps down as it passes the same azimuth as the Sun.. If it is desired to have images that can determine both the speed and the flash pattern, let's talk because I could acquire them for you.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Leo Barhorst Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 9:44 AM To: SeeSat-L@satobs.org Subject: Re: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds The photo IMG_3518 perfectly shows what can be seen visualy. Three flashes and then 1 missing. See PPAS for more obs. Greetings, Leo Barhorst -----Oorspronkelijk bericht----- From: alain.figer@club-internet.fr Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 3:36 PM To: Seesat-L ; Bram Dorreman Subject: Flashing period of Ajisai (object 16908) at about 2.2 seconds Hi all, On sept 14th, I took 2 series of photographs of the nice flashing satellite Ajisai (EGP) 1986-61A, while it passed by Beta Ophiuci (21h04.5 UT) then by Eta Scuti (21h06.6 UT). At first glance, the flashing pattern varies significantly, because a lot of flashes are either missing or visible, however it was rather easy to discover that a same pattern is repeating every 2.2 seconds or so. The accuracy on this photometric period (2.2 plus or minus 0.15 second) was limited by a 'rough' calculus of the angular speed of the satellite. I couldn't measure it directly on the photographs as usual (each pic being of 4 second exposure time) because only dots are visible so that I cannot define accurately the very beginning and the very end of the 4-sec track. Otherwise it would be easy to guarantee a period at 0.01 sec, due to the sharpness of the dots. I issued as examples, 2 such photos on my Flickr's site : http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044892/in/photostream http://www.flickr.com/photos/25296169@N07/6169044856/in/photostream/ Alain Figer, France 2.128? E ; 48.673?N ; 170 m asl -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/73ea c83c/attachment.html _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ----- No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3912 - Release Date: 09/22/11 ------------------------------ Message: 4 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:09:06 +0000 From: David Tiller <dtiller@captechconsulting.com> Subject: Theirry Legault's UARS movie makes the news To: "SeeSat-L@satobs.org" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <0B3FBC5C98E107478AB5858BA8391C2303F31B2D@email.captechventures.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Theirry Legault's UARS movie made slashdot.org and the BBC! http://science.slashdot.org/story/11/09/22/1720230/New-Images-of-Tumbling-US-Satellite-From-Theirry-Legaullt http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15009337 Congrats, Theirry! -- David Tiller Lead Consultant/Architect | CapTech (804) 304-0638 | dtiller@captechconsulting.com<mailto:dtiller@captechconsulting.com> -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/3153a5ea/attachment.html ------------------------------ Message: 5 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:18:24 +0000 From: Russell Eberst <eberst@blueyonder.co.uk> Subject: 2011SEP21-22.OBS To: "Bjoern Gimle"@GlocalNet, Ted Molczan <tedmolczan@rogers.com>, Peter Wakelin <peter@ascotrig.demon.co.uk>, Pierre NEIRINCK <pierre-neirinck@wanadoo.fr>, Mike McCants <mmccants@prismnet.com>, yamada@ysc.go.jp, Greg Roberts <grr@telkomsa.net>, Seesat List <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>, BramDorreman <bram.dorreman@skynet.be> Message-ID: <4E7B8A00.8090701@blueyonder.co.uk> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed SATOBS 2420 1109 0.211 1204 21 1002701 190345.00 202042+400545 5.0 5.0 0 S 9906401 190609.35 230524+490201 5.4 5.4 0 S 8006902 191825.70 032618+551412 3.9 3.9 0 S 0702702 192118.35 031645+615107 4.2 6.1 0 I 9607201 194939.70 231623+445205 3.2 3.2 0 S 9607201 195016.21 000345+580845 3.4 3.4 0 S 0504201 195407.50 055553+454320 1.7 1.7 0 S 0501602 195845.01 194741+383529 4.0 4.0 0 S 9202301 200332.66 220353+475917 5.1 6.2 0.5 R 9805503 200623.68 040514+375200 6.6 6.6 0 S 7711702 200946.91 043600+532231 7.4 7.4 0 S 8704308 201250.26 201406+334105 8.3 8.3 0 S 9805501 202203.80 214311+323259 7.6 7.6 0 S 9805501 202232.82 221852+461726 7.7 7.7 0 S 0300902 202457.58 035150+520754 5.6 5.6 0 S 0300902 202531.70 053229+542054 5.9 5.9 0 S 8401204 202926.50 221812+370404 4.5 4.5 0 S 7708702 203828.65 040241+535325 6.8 6.8 0 S 0004701 204203.36 060214+444139 5.9 5.9 0 S 0103202 204414.12 070251+720125 4.2 4.2 0 S 9801001 204711.51 062213+562253 6.1 6.1 0 S 8401201 205029.14 175544+720038 5.9 7.3 2 R 7905001 205517.46 220723+325545 5.7 7.1 20 R 9602401 205706.51 235657+503333 4.9 4.9 0 S 8401206 210448.65 203204+343026 7.4 7.4 0 E 7704401 210919.16 041609+375241 7.1 7.9 4 R 0906602 211308.69 101047+791144 4.3 4.3 0 S 7301502 211838.69 054217+560847 8.0 8.0 0 S 1006207 211917.03 064234+571523 6.4 6.4 0 S 9607201 212402.89 180527+095125 5.9 5.9 0 S 0504201 212909.14 150159+561045 2.2 2.2 0 S 8601401 213247.10 045526+583352 7.7 7.7 0 S 8103302 213855.29 082522+684056 5.8 5.8 0 S 22 9602905 034639.50 044827+184451 4.6 4.6 0 S 7504301 034826.30 093216+721908 7.3 7.3 0 S 0702701 035251.21 060434+360120 5.8 5.8 0 S 0702703 035314.79 063153+374638 5.9 5.9 0 S 0501801 040044.33 002836+434014 6.1 6.1 0 S 8108101 040343.30 104326+573744 6.8 6.8 0 S 9802304 040846.62 025328+304127 6.6 6.6 0 S 7603801 041746.69 015315+300911 5.7 5.7 0 S 7603801 041800.50 024635+250313 5.3 5.3 0 S 9704301 042243.59 171552+604325 7.5 7.5 0 S 9602904 042853.11 050515+490429 5.2 5.2 0 S 9004901 043303.20 041256-162526 4.1 4.1 0 S 8410802 043607.35 005322+602848 2.2 2.2 0 S 9405701 043748.75 231845+600935 6.3 7.5 0 I 1004601 044247.51 000957+442545 4.5 4.5 0 S 7406301 045113.99 012101+372855 5.8 7.2 0 I 999 Total observations (2011): 3703 best wishes, Russell Eberst 55.9486N, 3.1383W, 150 feet = 46 metres above MSL ------------------------------ Message: 6 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 22:31:55 +0100 From: "Satcom" <john@satcom.freeserve.co.uk> Subject: UARS Notam To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Cc: Bev M Ewen-Smith <info@coaa.co.uk> Message-ID: <002601cc796f$0d3faf70$6ed6fea9@DELLMASTER> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="iso-8859-1"; reply-type=original 1/2095 - .. SPECIAL NOTICE .. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL 1109252359 UTC. AIRCRAFT ARE ADVISED THAT A POTENTIAL HAZARD MAY OCCUR DUE TO REENTRY OF SATELLITE UARS INTO THE EARTH apos;S ATMOSPHERE. FURTHER NOTAMS WILL BE ISSUED IF SPECIFIC INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. IN THE INTEREST OF FLIGHT SAFETY, IT IS CRITICAL THAT ALL PILOTS/FLIGHT CREW MEMBERS REPORT ANY OBSERVED FALLING SPACE DEBRIS TO THE APPROPRIATE ATC FACILITY AND INCLUDE POSITION, ALTITUDE, TIME, AND DIRECTION OF DEBRIS OBSERVED. THE DOMESTIC EVENTS NETWORK /DEN/ TELEPHONE 202-493-5107, IS THE FAA COORDINATION FACILITY. WIE UNTIL UFN. CREATED: 21 SEP 23:24 2011 Regards John ------------------------------ Message: 7 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 14:35:55 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: UARS Reentry moving later To: "Seesat List" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <020705F136FE4C889F366CBA139D2CB5@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC ? 9 hours The graphic shows my location is down to 3 orbits later.. Of course the question is where is perigee?? Derek ------------------------------ Message: 8 Date: 22 Sep 2011 21:40 GMT From: "Harro Zimmer" <Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de> Subject: UARS decay Update To: <seesat-l@satobs.org>, "Leonard Divid" <newsspace@aol.com> Message-ID: <1R6qzs-1jWwl60@fwd23.t-online.de> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" 1991-063B UARS (# 2170 USSTRATCOM have released today their forecast issued at 21 September, 20:28 UTC: 23 September 20:58 UTC +/- 24 hours ascending over 31.9?N, 331.1?E (North Atlantic) My new prediction based on an selection of the ELSETs 11263.927... -11265.7075... vers with program MPM + REENTRY the decay on : 23 September, 20:22 UTC +/- 03 hours descending over 50.52?S 188,67?E (South Atlantic). Harro Harro Zimmer - Berlin Germany -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/8ffda69c/attachment.html ------------------------------ Message: 9 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 23:55:41 +0200 From: "Leo Barhorst" <l.barhorst@upcmail.nl> Subject: UARS not seen To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <C6DB6D54CEB64214A7405C7ECD99C0BF@GEBRUIK15MDZ2G> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Just watched the 49 degrees pass at 21:39 UT. Sat was not sun lit. As expected nothing was seen between 21:30 and 21:50 UT. Still a day away from predicted decay time. Greetings, Leo Barhorst -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/207a186b/attachment.html ------------------------------ Message: 10 Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:06:40 +0200 From: Marco Langbroek <marco.langbroek@wanadoo.nl> Subject: Neither here (Re: UARS not seen) To: Leo Barhorst <l.barhorst@upcmail.nl>, "satelliet lijst (SeeSat)" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <4E7BB170.9050701@wanadoo.nl> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Op 22-9-2011 23:55, Leo Barhorst schreef: > Just watched the 49 degrees pass at 21:39 UT. Sat was not sun lit. > As expected nothing was seen between 21:30 and 21:50 UT. > Still a day away from predicted decay time. Also tried it here at 21:41 pass (shadow pass) when it would pass just below UMI. Difficult conditions: thin cloud cover but stars visible in 10x50 bino. Nothing seen, so it isn't glowing yet. - Marco ----- Dr Marco Langbroek - SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands. e-mail: sattrackcam@wanadoo.nl Cospar 4353 (Leiden): 52.15412 N, 4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL Cospar 4354 (De Wilck): 52.11685 N, 4.56016 E (WGS84), -2 m ASL Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com ----- ------------------------------ Message: 11 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:46:54 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later To: "'Seesat List'" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <2F794AAE53B1487483E6F4456C55B79C@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Perigee works! Perigee is roughly near the equator as UARS heads for the USA.. Texas to the Great Lakes 2 orbits later than the aero.org prediction or 14 degrees up in the East for me 3 orbits late. Perigee is as it clears the horizon.. I am sure I am doing something wrong, but that's what Heavensat shows with today's elset.. My only point is I am liking my chances more and more.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Derek C Breit Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 2:36 PM To: Seesat List Subject: UARS Reentry moving later http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC ? 9 hours The graphic shows my location is down to 3 orbits later.. Of course the question is where is perigee?? Derek _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ----- No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3912 - Release Date: 09/22/11 ------------------------------ Message: 12 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:50:06 -0400 From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> Subject: UARS: Satevo decay estimates To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <002601cc7979$f9930f70$ecb92e50$@rogers.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Propagating USSTRATCOM's TLEs of epoch on Sep 22, through 19:55 UTC, using Satevo 0.51, yields decay early on Sep 24 UTC. The values jump around between 00:35 and 01:28 UTC, depending on the TLE. UARS would have to remain in orbit until Sep 24 at about 01:00 UTC for North American's to have any chance of seeing the decay. That now seems more likely than it did this morning, but it's too soon to know the revolution of decay. Ted Molczan ------------------------------ Message: 13 Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 01:20:48 +0200 From: Christian Kj?rnet <ckjarnet@broadpark.no> Subject: UARS Not Seen To: seesat-l@satobs.org Message-ID: <CAA18F70.145B3%ckjarnet@broadpark.no> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Just observed a 32 degree pass at 23:13 UT in clear sky. Sat was in the Earth's shadow. Nothing was seen. Still too early. Regards, -- Christian Kj?rnet Kongsberg, Norway COSPAR 5059 ------------------------------ Message: 14 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:44:04 -0400 From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> Subject: UARS: Satevo decay estimates To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <002801cc7981$83aff270$8b0fd750$@rogers.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" USSTRATCOM has just issued another TLE; Satevo propagates it to decay on Sep 24 near 00:02 UTC. The following table shows the evolution in predicted decay over the past day: TLE Epoch Satevo Decay Estimate 2011 Sep 21 17:26:20 2011 Sep 23 20:54:10 2011 Sep 21 17:26:19 2011 Sep 23 21:55:55 2011 Sep 21 18:54:45 2011 Sep 23 21:30:57 2011 Sep 21 21:51:33 2011 Sep 23 22:21:44 2011 Sep 22 03:44:57 2011 Sep 24 01:19:02 2011 Sep 22 08:09:47 2011 Sep 23 19:13:19 2011 Sep 22 11:06:13 2011 Sep 23 20:59:24 2011 Sep 22 11:06:14 2011 Sep 24 00:43:51 2011 Sep 22 12:34:26 2011 Sep 24 00:42:21 2011 Sep 22 16:58:53 2011 Sep 24 00:36:05 2011 Sep 22 16:58:53 2011 Sep 24 01:28:22 2011 Sep 22 19:55:04 2011 Sep 24 00:35:24 2011 Sep 22 22:51:09 2011 Sep 24 00:01:46 Ted Molczan ------------------------------ Message: 15 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:09:44 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later To: "'Seesat List'" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <6EE6C530F303455E81B72AE434D2DD02@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" The update here.. http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html now shows zero chance for the USA.. BOOO!!! :-) 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ? 7 hours It's becoming beyond my ability to follow along.. Derek ------------------------------ Message: 16 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 21:47:30 -0400 From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <003201cc7992$c1df6150$459e23f0$@rogers.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Derek Breit wrote: > The update here.. > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > now shows zero chance for the USA.. > > 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ? 7 hours You have misunderstood the report. The ground track shows it decaying at the above time, over the South Pacific, on a track moving toward Mexico, the South Central U.S.A, the North East of the U.S.A and Canada, across the Atlantic, then over the U.K. and Central Europe. So, it need only survive a bit longer, to given millions of folks a definite slim chance at seeing it. But keep in mind that the stated uncertainty is +/- 7 hours. Ted Molczan ------------------------------ Message: 17 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:11:55 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: FW: UARS Reentry moving later To: "Seesat List" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Message-ID: <44F311B113F141B196485601C7645AA3@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" -----Original Message----- From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:07 PM To: 'Ted Molczan'; 'seesat-l@satobs.org' Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later Actually it doesn't.. hit refresh and it shows it decaying over the Western Pacific North of Australia now... Descending.. Worse it doesn't show any of the later tracks coming close to the USA.. What I am looking at is attached for you Ted.. I vastly preferred the tracks you describe, but they went POOF! Tell me it is an error on my satellite modem or my computer.. Pease.. Mind you Heavensat still shows very similar paths to what I was watching using the newest elset.. Same as listed in the graphic.. 19:55 9/22 Either way.. Whether it has already happened or will in the near future, it will at some point be beyond my ability to follow along. I am prepared to video either shortly before 8 PDT low in the East, or even a later pass in the West and / or alert many in North America so they can do it.. "Y'all just handle your business and let me know what I might need to know." I'll just step outside and hunt for AEHF.. :-)) Derek PS.. Just hit refresh again and the "Good" graphic is now back.. Definitely time for me to go observe some sats.. Still attaching what I captured from my screen moments ago as proof I am not crazy.. -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Ted Molczan Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 6:48 PM To: seesat-l@satobs.org Subject: RE: UARS Reentry moving later Derek Breit wrote: > The update here.. > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html > > now shows zero chance for the USA.. > > 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ? 7 hours You have misunderstood the report. The ground track shows it decaying at the above time, over the South Pacific, on a track moving toward Mexico, the South Central U.S.A, the North East of the U.S.A and Canada, across the Atlantic, then over the U.K. and Central Europe. So, it need only survive a bit longer, to given millions of folks a definite slim chance at seeing it. But keep in mind that the stated uncertainty is +/- 7 hours. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ------------------------------ Message: 18 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:29:35 -0700 (PDT) From: Kevin Fetter <kfetter@yahoo.com> Subject: no luck with AEHF To: seesat-l@satobs.org Message-ID: <1316744975.59339.YahooMailClassic@web161601.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. Could be to faint. for me to see. Kevin ------------------------------ Message: 19 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:03:04 -0700 (PDT) From: Brad Young <allenb_young@yahoo.com> Subject: BY C 092311 To: SeeSat <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <1316746984.11236.YahooMailNeo@web30005.mail.mud.yahoo.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Also no sign of UARS on 80 deg pass. No OFEQ 7 seen - PPAS and unids later. 17997 87 043A ? 8336 E 20110923013323680 17 25 2140956+103928 28 S 17997 87 043A ? 8336 E 20110923013330060 17 25 2142107+093182 48 S 21949 92 023A ? 8336 E 20110923020828600 17 25 1938925-162771 28 S 21949 92 023A ? 8336 E 20110923020838080 17 25 1939175-140057 28 S ? COSPAR 8336 = TULSA1 36.139208,-95.983429 COSPAR 8335 = TULSA2 +35.8311 -96.1411 1100ft -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20110922/822d8227/attachment.html ------------------------------ Message: 20 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 23:16:32 -0400 From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> Subject: UARS: Evolution of Decay Predictions To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <004101cc799f$31f0d710$95d28530$@rogers.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" I have plotted the evolution of the decay predictions, to show the gradual convergence on the actual date and time. Most of the data consists of Satevo 0.51 propagations of USSTRATCOM TLEs, but it also includes those of USSTRATCOM, The Aerospace Corporation, and Harro Zimmer. All were in reasonably close agreement, most of the time. The first plot shows the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, it appeared that the decay would occur during Sep 29 - Oct 01 UTC, but the increased drag associated with high geomagnetic activity during Sep 9-13, advanced the decay by about one week. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v5a.pdf The second version focuses in on the past four days, during which the predicted decay ranged between Sep 23, 14 h and Sep 24, 07 h UTC. It now seems to have narrowed to Sep 23, 21 h - Sep 24, 03 h UTC. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v5b.pdf Ted Molczan ------------------------------ Message: 21 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:25:39 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. To: <kfetter@yahoo.com>, <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <6489905F01B249DF9AA30B3B5598B6BF@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" AEHF is near the "old prediction " from Classified.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Kevin Fetter Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:30 PM To: seesat-l@satobs.org Subject: no luck with AEHF I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. Could be to faint. for me to see. Kevin _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ----- No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 ------------------------------ Message: 22 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:39:27 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. To: "'Derek C Breit'" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com>, <kfetter@yahoo.com>, <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <65D317B5600A4ACBA58275BB04874DE4@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Appulse of mag 12 TYC 5234-826-1 at 3:30:41 UT +/- 3 seconds.. Heavensat says it should have been there at 3:29:39, so 1 min late against the previous elset, and WAY late against Mike's guess for tonight.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:26 PM To: 'kfetter@yahoo.com'; 'seesat-l@satobs.org' Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. AEHF is near the "old prediction " from Classified.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Kevin Fetter Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:30 PM To: seesat-l@satobs.org Subject: no luck with AEHF I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. Could be to faint. for me to see. Kevin _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ----- No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 ------------------------------ Message: 23 Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 21:17:28 -0700 From: "Derek C Breit" <breit_ideas@poyntsource.com> Subject: 11940.. AEHF... Measuring tomorrow afternnon.. To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <F6337FFB0DFB4E4FB33BAE4820AC3ECC@BREITIDEASObs> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" I will never be able to measure it off this video, but 11940 is also 1 min late against the INT elset.. This based on the fact that the orientation of AEHF 1 using the old elset and 11940 using the INT elset matches perfectly on video except that AEHF is one minute late.. If this is useful, great.. Otherwise I doubt I can lift a measurement off the video of such a dim sat.. Either way I wont be able to measure these until tomorrow afternoon, and I intend on hitting AEHF for the next few days, so I may just skip measuring it if that is deemed OK (because someone else has it..) Night.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:39 PM To: 'Derek C Breit'; kfetter@yahoo.com; seesat-l@satobs.org Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. Appulse of mag 12 TYC 5234-826-1 at 3:30:41 UT +/- 3 seconds.. Heavensat says it should have been there at 3:29:39, so 1 min late against the previous elset, and WAY late against Mike's guess for tonight.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: Derek C Breit [mailto:breit_ideas@poyntsource.com] Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:26 PM To: 'kfetter@yahoo.com'; 'seesat-l@satobs.org' Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. AEHF is near the "old prediction " from Classified.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Kevin Fetter Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 7:30 PM To: seesat-l@satobs.org Subject: no luck with AEHF I tried looking for AEHF, no luck. Could be to faint. for me to see. Kevin _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l ----- No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 ----- No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 10.0.1410 / Virus Database: 1520/3913 - Release Date: 09/22/11 ------------------------------ Message: 24 Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:29:52 -0400 From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <004201cc79a9$708f86b0$51ae9410$@rogers.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Derek Breit wrote: > Appulse of mag 12 TYC 5234-826-1 at 3:30:41 UT +/- 3 seconds.. > Heavensat says it should have been there at 3:29:39, so 1 min late against > the previous elset, and WAY late against Mike's guess for tonight.. Assuming a direct appulse, and adding the resulting reduction to Kevin's obs 48 hours ago, yields: 1 70001U 11266.14630787 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03 2 70001 4.6824 277.8581 0351151 234.5568 182.8061 0.94712293 04 I offer this is as a preliminary solution, in case anyone else is in a position to observe it tonight. Except for an apparently brief manoeuvre on Sep 20, AHEF 1 has not manoeuvred since about Sep 13 UTC, which is unexpected. It had been on track to achieve synchronous orbit on Oct 03. Why the apparent hiatus? Ted Molczan ------------------------------ Message: 25 Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:45:49 -0400 From: "Ted Molczan" <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> Subject: RE: no luck with AEHF - Derek Has it.. To: <seesat-l@satobs.org> Message-ID: <004301cc79ab$ab263c40$0172b4c0$@rogers.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Sorry, I sent the wrong elset. Please discard it, and try this one: 1 70001U 11266.14630787 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03 2 70001 4.6824 277.8581 0336000 234.5568 185.1021 0.94942798 07 Ted Molczan ------------------------------ Message: 26 Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 17:46:13 +0900 From: Makoto Kamada <m_kamada@nifty.com> Subject: IGS 6A (IGS-O4) was successfully launched To: seesat-l@satobs.org Message-ID: <4E7C4755.2080600@nifty.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-2022-JP IGS 6A (IGS-O4), new reconnaissance satellite of Japan, was successfully launched from Tanegashima Space Center (TNSC) by H-IIA F19 rocket on 2011-09-23 04:36 UT. http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2011/09/20110923_h2af19_j.html http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20110923/t10015803961000.html 27698 2003-009A IGS 1A (IGS-O1) 27699 2003-009B IGS 1B (IGS-R1) 36104 2009-066A IGS 5A (IGS-O3) Local time of ascending node passage: 22:30 Local time of descending node passage: 10:30 29393 2006-037A IGS 3A (IGS-O2) 30586 2007-005A IGS 4A (IGS-R2) 37813? 2011-050A IGS 6A (IGS-O4) should be here Local time of ascending node passage: 01:30 Local time of descending node passage: 13:30 Makoto Kamada ------------------------------ Message: 27 Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:01:55 +0000 From: Peter Wakelin <peter@ascotrig.demon.co.uk> Subject: SATOBS 2011 September 23 To: tedmolczan@rogers.com, mmccants@prismnet.com, eberst@blueyonder.co.uk, davidbrierley@waitrose.com, bjorn.gimle@gmail.com, pierre-neirinck@wanadoo.fr, seesat-l@satobs.org Message-ID: <kJUkILATkFfOFwuv@ascotrig.demon.co.uk> SATOBS 721010120181109230256293 01 12040582 +15171 1 5 721010120181109230258283 01 12040746 +15173 1 5 721010220181109230305200 01 12003336 +06554 1 5 123 S 721010220181109230307540 01 12003645 +07081 1 5 721010220181109230309180 01 12003814 +07141 1 5 120 S 750550220181109230334100 01 12025493 +14036 1 5 750550220181109230336090 01 12025681 +14067 1 5 750550220181109230338086 01 12025872 +14101 1 5 751180320181109230342050 01 12015336 +04319 1 5 751180320181109230344040 01 12015540 +04354 1 5 751180320181109230346030 01 12015742 +04388 1 5 760590120181109230358150 01 12014365 +04398 1 5 760590120181109230400140 01 12014565 +04446 1 5 760590120181109230402130 01 12014766 +04482 1 5 771140120181109230405400 01 12022358 +08458 1 5 771140120181109230407390 01 12022558 +08530 1 5 771140120181109230409380 01 12022760 +08598 1 5 780380120181109230418150 01 12031144 +03155 1 5 780380120181109230420140 01 12031343 +03184 1 5 780380120181109230422130 01 12031546 +03212 1 5 780580120181109230425350 01 12050591 -04087 1 5 780580120181109230428090 01 12050847 -04050 1 5 780580120181109230429330 01 12050986 -04029 1 5 790530320181109230442000 01 12062940 +08357 1 5 790860120181109230448250 01 12061551 +00078 1 5 790860120181109230449544 01 12061692 +00077 1 5 790860120181109230451234 01 12061834 +00077 1 5 999 What these numbers mean: http://www.satobs.org/position/UKformat.html -- Peter Wakelin COSPAR 2018 GUNDLETON, Lat 51.0945N Long 1.1188W 124m ------------------------------ _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l End of Seesat-l Digest, Vol 20, Issue 23 **************************************** -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... 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