UARS: evolution of predicted decay v12b

From: Ted Molczan (
Date: Fri Sep 23 2011 - 23:47:51 UTC

  • Next message: William F Purcell: "UARS just seen over central Texas"

    Satevo propagates USSTRATCOM's epoch 11266.9273060 TLE to decay on Sep 24 at 05:05 UTC. I have also added new
    predictions by Harro Zimmer (04:19 +/- 1.5 h), The Aerospace Corporation (04:04 +/- 3 h), and USSTRATCOM (04:49 +/- 4
    Russell Eberst made the useful suggestion to plot the recent trend of the predicted decay, as well as the line denoting
    zero time to decay, or "Decay Now", as it is labelled on the plot. Decay would occur at their intersection. It cannot be
    truly predictive, but it help's illustrate the situation. 
    Computing the trend using all of today's predictions made during 16:25-22:43 UTC, results in decay on Sep 24 at 04:42
    The trend line changes over time, and there is considerable scatter in the data. It is a matter of judgement to decide
    the range of data to include. Earlier today, it trended later, which indicated decay as late as ~10 h UTC, but in recent
    hours it has trended slightly earlier.
    Ted Molczan
    Seesat-l mailing list

    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Sep 23 2011 - 23:48:51 UTC