Satevo propagates USSTRATCOM's epoch 11266.9273060 TLE to decay on Sep 24 at 05:05 UTC. I have also added new predictions by Harro Zimmer (04:19 +/- 1.5 h), The Aerospace Corporation (04:04 +/- 3 h), and USSTRATCOM (04:49 +/- 4 h). Russell Eberst made the useful suggestion to plot the recent trend of the predicted decay, as well as the line denoting zero time to decay, or "Decay Now", as it is labelled on the plot. Decay would occur at their intersection. It cannot be truly predictive, but it help's illustrate the situation. Computing the trend using all of today's predictions made during 16:25-22:43 UTC, results in decay on Sep 24 at 04:42 UTC. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v12b.pdf The trend line changes over time, and there is considerable scatter in the data. It is a matter of judgement to decide the range of data to include. Earlier today, it trended later, which indicated decay as late as ~10 h UTC, but in recent hours it has trended slightly earlier. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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