USSTRATCOM has issued a higher-drag version of its epoch 11266.7447340 TLE, which Satevo propagates to decay on Sep 24 about 05:23 h UTC. I have added it to the heap. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v11b.pdf I have no idea when UARS will decay, but if it were to occur on the revolution that crosses North America just before 06:00 UTC, and if the final descent were to occur over North America, then the following propagated TLE should yield reasonable predictions. 1 70001U 91063B 11267.16967593 .00000000 00000-0 38225-3 0 96315 2 70001 56.9366 261.8780 0001356 9.5190 350.4835 16.57954272109192 Below is the ground track of that North American transit, which is over mostly thinly populated areas. Note the ultra-low altitude. The visible part of a decay begins at about 100 km and is pretty much over at 50 km altitude. The low altitude results in a much smaller radius of visibility. For a pass to reach 20 deg elevation, the observer must be within ~200 km of the object. Time Lat Long Alt-km -------------------------------------- 05:47:00 50.988 N 134.934 W 84.185 05:47:30 52.007 N 132.131 W 84.252 05:48:00 52.950 N 129.197 W 84.302 05:48:30 53.811 N 126.134 W 84.334 05:49:00 54.583 N 122.944 W 84.346 05:49:30 55.261 N 119.635 W 84.337 05:50:00 55.840 N 116.215 W 84.306 05:50:30 56.314 N 112.698 W 84.252 05:51:00 56.678 N 109.101 W 84.174 05:51:30 56.929 N 105.443 W 84.072 05:52:00 57.064 N 101.745 W 83.945 05:52:30 57.082 N 98.032 W 83.793 05:53:00 56.983 N 94.326 W 83.616 05:53:30 56.768 N 90.653 W 83.415 05:54:00 56.438 N 87.034 W 83.188 05:54:30 55.998 N 83.489 W 82.938 05:55:00 55.451 N 80.037 W 82.663 05:55:30 54.803 N 76.691 W 82.366 05:56:00 54.059 N 73.462 W 82.047 05:56:30 53.224 N 70.357 W 81.707 05:57:00 52.305 N 67.382 W 81.347 05:57:30 51.309 N 64.537 W 80.968 05:58:00 50.240 N 61.822 W 80.573 05:58:30 49.104 N 59.235 W 80.162 05:59:00 47.907 N 56.771 W 79.737 05:59:30 46.655 N 54.427 W 79.300 Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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