RE: UARS: Satevo decay estimates; ground track plot

From: Derek C Breit (breit_ideas@poyntsource.com)
Date: Wed Sep 21 2011 - 21:24:27 UTC

  • Next message: Derek C Breit: "RE: UARS: Satevo decay estimates; ground track plot"

    Is it too much to ask for a minor dip in Solar activity??
    
    Just 7 hours later, at 3UT Sept 24th, fits my schedule better..
    
    This would decay UARS over North America in a dark sky at a convenient hour
    on Friday night..
    
    Derek - in the form of a pretzel with all appendages crossed.
    
    PS.. "Track the UARS in RealTime"
    http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/21/exclusive-track-nasas-falling-65-t
    on-satellite-in-real-time/
    
    Which reminds me of a question.. How do I change the displayed sat on
    Heavens Above??
    
    
    
    -----Original Message-----
    From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org
    [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf
    Of Ted Molczan
    Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 1:51 PM
    To: seesat-l@satobs.org
    Subject: UARS: Satevo decay estimates; ground track plot
    
    Propagating USSTRATCOM's orbital elements of UARS (91063B / 21701) with
    epoch on Sep 21 UTC, using Satevo, indicates
    decay late on Sep 23, roughly between 18:00 and 22:00 UTC. This is
    consistent with Harro Zimmer's estimate of 20:05 UTC
    +/- 5 h, which he posted 24 h ago. 
    
    I offer the following ground track plot to help visualize where UARS could
    come down during that period.
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_2011_Sep_23_UTC_v1.jpg
    
    There is still potential for the estimated time of decay to shift somewhat,
    before it begins to narrow down.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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