UARS: Satevo decay estimates; ground track plot

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Sep 21 2011 - 20:50:48 UTC

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    Propagating USSTRATCOM's orbital elements of UARS (91063B / 21701) with epoch on Sep 21 UTC, using Satevo, indicates
    decay late on Sep 23, roughly between 18:00 and 22:00 UTC. This is consistent with Harro Zimmer's estimate of 20:05 UTC
    +/- 5 h, which he posted 24 h ago. 
    
    I offer the following ground track plot to help visualize where UARS could come down during that period.
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_2011_Sep_23_UTC_v1.jpg
    
    There is still potential for the estimated time of decay to shift somewhat, before it begins to narrow down.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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