Updated elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Sep 17 2010 - 20:57:14 UTC

  • Next message: Brad Young: "Re: Updated elements"

    Scott Campbell, Mike McCants, and Peter Wakelin, contributed observations used to determine the
    following element set.
    
    AEHF 1                                                3944 X 49988 km
    1 36868U 10039A   10260.11616260  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    09
    2 36868  16.0055 300.3528 6904412 196.4504 118.3697  1.42605242    07
    Arc 20100915.13-0917.16 WRMS resid 0.007 totl 0.006 xtrk
    
    Also, I have reviewed some of my earlier analyses, and concluded that the manoeuvre of Sep 09, near
    the apogee of 01:20:38 UTC, raised the perigee to about 1500 km, not the ~1370 km earlier estimated.
    
    
    I came to this conclusion after I discovered that Brad Young's observations of Sep 10 near 03:42
    UTC, were almost certainly of a piece of GTO debris (92072W / 34190). This is not any kind of
    failing on Brad's part; observing conditions were bad, there is a lot of stuff in orbit, and we all
    fall victim to Doppelgangers from time to time. However, as a matter of routine, since the obs had
    large residuals relative the last known orbit, I should have checked them for correlation with other
    orbits, but failed to do so; I apologize for my error.
    
    Removing the erroneous data, reveals that manoeuvres did not occur on Sep 08 and 10, but instead on
    Sep 09, near 01:21 UTC. It also creates a new arc, consisting of obs by Peter on Sep 09 and Greg on
    Sep 10, resulting in this solution for the Sep 09 manoeuvre:
    
    AEHF 1                                                1512 X 49984 km
    1 36868U 10039A   10253.93714699  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
    2 36868  19.3473 303.4450 7544000 192.3222 121.0557  1.50798340    08
    Arc 20100909.85-0910.94 WRMS resid 0.005 totl 0.003 xtrk
    
    Please discard the epoch 10252.62269284 elset posted here:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Sep-2010/0118.html
    
    Here is the revised and updated record of manoeuvres to-date:
    
                            Per  Apo   Inc
    Seg Burn  Date   UTC     km   km   deg   
      COLA   Aug 20 14:25   278 49989 22.10
     1    1  Aug 29 14:52   446 49975 21.62
     1    2  Aug 31 13:25   589 49992 21.21
     1    3  Sep 02 12:09   791 49983 20.81
     1    4  Sep 04 11:05   982 49981 20.36
     2    1  Sep 07 01:58  1164 49994 19.96 estimated, few obs
     2    2  Sep 09 01:21  1512 49985 19.35
     2    3  Sep 11 00:50  2222 49975 18.23
     2    4  Sep 13 01:39  3091 49976 17.01
     2    5  Sep 15 03:10  3944 49988 16.00
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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