I will try this at 2:48 ish UT (7:48 PDT) (with the second possible point at about 8 minutes later) in The Teapot.. If anyone observes it sooner, please let me know which point it is closer to!.. I am just returning to normal after a weeks illness, but I'll see if I can't get a couple quick points.. Derek -----Original Message----- From: seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+breit_ideas=poyntsource.com@satobs.org] On Behalf Of Ted Molczan Sent: Thursday, September 09, 2010 9:47 AM To: SeeSat-L@satobs.org Subject: AEHF 1 - Segment 2 Burn 2 estimated elements Hobbyists have documented the results of each of the six burns performed by AEHF 1, as summarized below. Per Apo Inc Seg Burn Date UTC km km deg COLA Aug 20 278 49989 22.10 1 1 Aug 29 14:52 446 49975 21.62 1 2 Aug 31 13:25 589 49992 21.21 1 3 Sep 02 12:09 791 49983 20.81 1 4 Sep 04 11:05 982 49981 20.36 2 1 Sep 07 01:58 1146 49994 19.96 Brad Young reported the most recent observations, made just over an hour after Burn 1 of Segment 2. The observational arc was too short to determine the new orbital elements using orbit analysis methods, so I estimated them based on the estimated time of the burn, and assuming effects similar to those of the Segment 1 burns, which happen to closely agree with Brad's obs: Segment 2 Burn 1 estimate 1164 X 49994 km 1 70002U 10250.08178243 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03 2 70002 19.9600 304.5991 7640000 190.5461 180.0000 1.52000000 07 The Segment 1 burns occurred at nearly 2 day intervals. The first Segment 2 burn occurred 2.5 days after the final Segment 1 burn. My guess is that subsequent burns will now occur at nearly 2 day intervals, in which case, it should have manoeuvred today (Sep 09) near the apogee of 01:20:38 UTC, with approximately this result: Segment 2 Burn 2 estimate 1344 X 49995 km 1 70003U 10252.05599538 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 07 2 70003 19.5600 304.2021 7590400 191.3667 180.0000 1.51355000 02 My recommendation for anyone considering further observations, is to be prepared for the object to appear near either of the above orbits, and failing that, somewhat later and off-course relative 70003. In the press-briefing of Aug 30, the USAF stated that the Segment 2 burns would more than double the perigee achieved by Segment 1, which suggests ~2000 km. Assuming the failed LAE (liquid apogee engine) has conventional performance characteristics, I estimate that the REA (reaction engine assembly) now being used, may also be able to achieve nearly the 6 deg inclination intended to have been achieved by the LAE. Whether or not that is planned, and in what sequence, I do not know. Segments 3 and 4 will consist of much smaller manoeuvres, using the Hall Current Thrusters, which should present less of a challenge to observers to keep up with, than the first two segments. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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