Marco Langbroek asked: > So: will NROL-32 be a Lacrosse again? Or a follow-up program > of Lacrosse? Considering all of the attention that NRO patches have attracted over the past decade, the NRO seems overdue to crack down on overly revealing symbolism. If so, the NROL-49 patch designers did not receive the memo, but most of the other recent ones have been pretty bland. The appearance of the great seal of the U.S.A. on the NROL-32 launch patch does not seem all that revealing to me, despite the similarity to one of the (least revealing of the) Lacrosse 4 patches. I believe NROL-32 is likely a Mentor, headed to GEO, but until we know the launch azimuth, there will be some room to doubt a GEO mission. If it were to head to the northeast, then we could suspect a sixth Lacrosse, or as a much longer shot, a third Misty. I offer my speculation along those lines, with the caveat that I have a poor track record making these sorts of assessments. I doubt NROL-32 is a Lacrosse, because I am just about certain that in less than two weeks, NROL-41 will launch the first of the next generation SARs (synthetic aperture radar) from VAFB, and I believe NROL-39 and NROL-45 are the same, and likely to follow over the next few years. All three were originally planned for launch during FY'04 - FY'08, about the time the new SARs would have flown, had they not run into developmental problems. Considering the lengthy delay of NROL-41, it may seem unlikely that any more Lacrosse await launch, but prior to the launch of Lacrosse 1, Craig Covault, writing for Aviation Week and Space Technology, reported in the issue of 1988 Nov 07, pg. 25, that "the technology involved is highly advanced, involving a multitude of sensors designed for an especially long life", and they do seem to be living up to that. I recall reading comments from NRO leaders that their spacecraft have been lasting much longer than expected, so despite the lengthy delay, it is plausible that the first FIA-radar launch would coincide with the final Lacrosse launch. Another argument favouring a Lacrosse, is that Lacrosse 5 (launched in 2005) clearly is a modification of the design of the first four satellites, and if it is a major modification (which I have no way to assess), then perhaps more than one was purchased. Orbital inclination must also be considered. Lacrosse 1 was launched into a 57 deg inclination, and subsequent launches have alternated between 57 deg and 68 deg, so a sixth launch could be expected to target 68 deg. That's a stretch for a CCAFS launch, but I suspect the Delta IV-H could handle the job (I do not plan to attempt any calculations unless a high inclination launch appears likely). I believe Misty is the stealthy variant of the Block 3 KH-11; it first flew in 1990 on the Shuttle, and again in 1999 on the T-IVB (Misty was the only T-IV payload that appeared to actually require the B version, that resulted from the SRMU program, and probably was the primary motivation for the upgrade). The next generation Misty supposedly was killed in 2007, but I doubt anyone without the required security clearance knows for certain; also, we cannot rule out the existence of a third first generation Misty. So, it could be Misty 1-3, or 2-1, but probably neither. I suspect a Mentor over a Lacrosse, because the GEO SIGINT constellation appears to be in greater need of fresh spacecraft. Mentor 1, launched in 1995, is outside our tracking coverage zone, but ISON reported it synchronous at 127 E, and inclined 8.7 deg, as of Jan 1. It began life inclined 6 deg, which perturbations reduced to ~2.5 deg during 2000-03; since then it has grown, and by now is >9 deg. It would appear due for replacement. Mentor 2, launched in 1998, has been tracked by us since 2003. It was at 44 E until spring 2009, when it was replaced by Mentor 4, which was launched in Jan 2009. After a slow drift westward, it recently arrived near 15 W, which appears to be its new home. It began life inclined at 7.3 deg, which naturally reduced to 7.0 deg by 2003, and since then has increased to 8.2 deg. Mentor 3 was launched in 2003, and I believe it has spent its whole life at 96 E, which is outside our tracking coverage. It began life inclined at 5 deg, which naturally reduced to 3 deg during 2006-08, and has since increased past 4 deg. It is reasonable to assume that it is healthy; likewise Mentor 4. So, with only two reasonably fresh Mentors in orbit, four of the highly durable Lacrosse in orbit, and the next generation SAR about to be launched, NROL-32 seems most likely to be a Mentor. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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