Updated elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Sep 03 2010 - 16:56:25 UTC

  • Next message: Marco Langbroek: "SATOBS ML (4353), 3 Sep 2010 (Pt. I): USA 186, USA 129"

    Derek Breit, Russell Eberst, Marco Langbroek, Pierre Neirinck, Jim Nix, Alberto Rango, Greg Roberts,
    Patrick Schmeer, Peter Wakelin, Mike Waterman, and Brad Young, contributed observations used to
    determine one or more of the following element sets.
    
    It was an eventful night. I want to analyze a few more, but best to get these out now.
    
    Alberto, Pierre and Russell, detected a reboost manoeuvre by USA 186, which I estimate occurred on
    Sep 02, near the perigee of 12:25:44 UTC. The following elements should be accurate to within a few
    seconds or so, tonight:
    
    USA 186                                                 255 X 1020 km
    1 28888U 05042A   10245.89453941  .00011314  00000-0  10199-3 0    06
    2 28888  97.8821 308.2369 0544848 161.5718 200.6114 14.76397722    06
    Arc 20100902.52-0902.91 WRMS resid 0.031 totl 0.015 xtrk
    
    As reported last week, Patrick Schmeer's observations of a bright UNID on Aug 14 and 20, proved to
    be of 07005C, which had not been observed since last summer. Russell recovered it last night,
    enabling the elements to be improved:
    
    IGS-R2 r                                                 337 X 402 km
    1 30588U 07005C   10246.12905285  .00025210  00000-0  24152-3 0    01
    2 30588  97.3688  40.1985 0048000  89.1822 271.4937 15.65096424    01
    Arc 20100903.14-0903.14 WRMS resid 0.111 totl 0.090 xtrk
    
    The arc remains short, so further improvement can be expected as new observations are reported. I
    expect predictions for the next few nights to be accurate to within several seconds of time, and
    about 0.2 deg of track.
    
    SDS 3-3                                                818 X 39529 km
    1 28384U 04034A   10245.82594442  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    09
    2 28384  63.9587 288.4717 7289825 272.5800  13.8859  2.00650580    07
    Arc 20100829.95-0902.86 WRMS resid 0.007 totl 0.004 xtrk
    
    AEHF 1 cooperated by manoeuvring as I had guessed; Derek Breit and Greg Roberts made the confirming
    observations. I expect the next manoeuvre tomorrow, so the following should be reasonably accurate
    tonight, but the solution would benefit from a longer arc.
    
    AEHF 1                                                 717 X 49993 km
    1 36868U 10039A   10246.08060118  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    04
    2 36868  20.8640 305.6358 7764000 188.7862 137.0161  1.53612616    07
    Arc 20100902.51-0903.2 WRMS resid 0.008 totl 0.004 xtrk
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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