RE: SATOBS Site 2751 27 Sep 2005

From: Ted Molczan (seesat@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Sep 27 2005 - 19:05:32 EDT

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    Bruce MacDonald wrote:
    
    > All of the USA 129 points are consistently early by ~4.3 
    > seconds; but I was using 5 day-old elsets (Mike's 
    > 05265.83010893) as the wife was using the computer before I 
    > went out. So I *guess* that it has manoeuvred in the last 24 
    > h (even though Pierre's last report stated it was on time).  
    > Another go with Mike's latest elset (05269.83359104 ) gives 
    > me a time error of -0.018 s, which confirms to me that a 
    > manoeuvre has taken place and our group has been onto it.
    
    There was no manoeuvre, only a modest (approx 20 percent) variation in the rate
    of decay. For this object, a 25 percent uncertainty in the rate of decay results
    in about 4 s prediction time uncertainty after 5 days.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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