I wrote: > Its orbital inclination, eccentricity and mean motion > resemble those of the Kobal't IMINT (imaging intelligence) birds. Here are its latest elements: Cosmos 2410 1 28396U 04038A 04270.59004630 .00656400 57222-5 19865-3 0 136 2 28396 67.1490 236.7131 0140545 92.9285 76.0868 16.06630947 304 It had not manoeuvred as of the above epoch (less than 2 days since launch); if it is a Kobal't, then it can be expected to make its first manoeuvre sometime within about 7 days of launch. I very much doubt it is ELINT. Its orbit is too low for most ELINT applications, with the exception of active radars, like the old RORSATs. Its initial orbit is fairly elliptical, 170 x 360 km, which makes little sense for radar. Perhaps it is yet to be circularized. If its eventual manoeuvres do not result in a substantially circular orbit, then that will argue strongly for a Kobal't. To aid in the identification process, I have derived the standard magnitude of Kobal't satellites, using 60 of Russell Eberst's observations of 11 such spacecraft: http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/Kobalt_stdmag/Kobalt_stdmag.jpg Standard magnitude is 4.5 +/- 1.5 (1000 km, 90 deg phase angle). Coefficient of phase is 1.12 mag/rad (0.0196 mag/deg). At least some southern hemisphere SeeSat-L subscribers have pre-dawn visibility. Ted Molczan ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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