RE: Speculation on payload of final CCAFS Titan IV

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Sep 25 2004 - 22:17:49 EDT

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    Bruce MacDonald wrote:
    
    > Fascinating.  The article mentions the launch on June 30, 
    > 2005 of the final Titan IV from VAFB.  I take it that this is 
    > to be the next KH bird, presumably to replace USA 116.
    
    My guess is a KH, but to replace the western-plane bird, USA 129. USA 161
    replaced USA 116 in the eastern-plane in 2001 October; USA 116 carries on in its
    extended mission.
    
    
    > If this next launch is to be Lacrosse 5, I shall be sorry to 
    > see Lacrosse 2 go.
    
    Assuming Lacrosse 5's orbit will be 57 deg, which seems likely, then it is not a
    replacement for Lacrosse 2, which is in a 68 deg orbit. Lacrosse 4 was launched
    into a 68 deg orbit in 2000, yet Lacrosse 2 continues in orbit, suggesting
    extraordinary longevity. 
    
    Indeed, the Lacrosses seem to be living up to Aviation Week and Space
    Technology's report of 1988 Nov 07, pg. 25, that "the technology involved is
    highly advanced, involving a multitude of sensors designed for an especially
    long life." 
    
    Lacrosse 1 remained in orbit for 8 years and 3 months; Lacrosse 2 remains in
    orbit 13 years and 6 months after launch; Lacrosse 3 is approaching its 7th
    anniversary - excellent lifetimes for complex, presumably high-power,
    spacecraft.
    
    On the other hand, Lacrosse 2's life seems almost too good to be true, and it
    cannot be excluded that it died suddenly, before it could be de-orbited. The
    last hint of life I recall, occurred sometime between 2003 Sep 28 - Oct 03 UTC,
    when its altitude dropped slightly. It was unclear to me whether this was due to
    some action by the spacecraft, or nature.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
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