Peter Wakelin wrote:
> I was disappointed not to find 04-34B last night using binoculars.
I regret that my search elements led you astray. The short arc was an even
greater problem than I imagined.
Fortunately, another observer had a better grasp of reality than I, and so
managed to observe the object last night. As a result, we now have obs on three
different nights, which I am confident has resolved most of the uncertainty of
the orbital period.
I have two solutions that are similar:
253 X 15394
1 28385U 04034B 04253.01581471 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 01
2 28385 57.3964 224.5317 5333263 295.9870 19.2540 5.13333137 01
314 X 15333
1 28385U 04034B 04253.01562127 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08
2 28385 57.4159 224.3817 5290481 295.8976 19.5644 5.13335852 05
I believe that the remaining uncertainty in orbital period is such that
predictions will be uncertain by at least 1 min after 24 hours. The perigee
height is low enough to result in significant drag, which cannot yet be reliably
computed, so it would be prudent to allow for a much greater prediction
uncertainty, perhaps 10 minutes.
Ted Molczan
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