Decay watch: 2002 September 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Sep 26 2002 - 15:31:37 EDT

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    the first decay warnings have been posted for the rocket from 
    yesterday's Progress M1-9 launch. The following is from my updated Decay 
    Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27532 = 02- 45 B = Progress M1-9 Soyuz rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 26 08:51     Sep 27 08:57 +-15h       38.4 N    98.6 W
    SatEvo     Sep 26 19:10     Sep 27 06:55 +-4h         0.0     150.3 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            188 x 173 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02269.61886432  .05191347  00000-0  68672-3 0    91
    2 27532  51.6222 263.7741 0011332  71.1775 289.1842 16.34480916   148
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            180 x 166 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02269.80207048  .08164253  44898-1  79333-3 0 90090
    2 27532  51.6215 262.7441 0010087  71.9466 288.1632 16.37320122   171
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            173 x 161 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02269.92405252  .10300265  77609-1  77258-3 0 90098
    2 27532  51.6209 262.0560 0009100  72.4605 287.6388 16.39548541   197
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            164 x 154 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02270.04584435  .14475135  16631+0  70381-3 0 90093
    2 27532  51.6201 261.3664 0007846  72.9755 287.1104 16.42500294   213
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            159 x 149 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02270.10664679  .18568781  28973+0  58300-3 0 90092
    2 27532  51.6195 261.0209 0007037  73.2336 286.8436 16.44485814   225
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            151 x 143 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02270.16736387  .26856948  65563+0  49539-3 0 90098
    2 27532  51.6188 260.6747 0005975  73.4921 286.5734 16.47173584   230
    Progress M1-9 Soyuz r                            138 x 132 km
    1 27532U 02045B   02270.22795378  .55572109  31101+1  47123-3 0 90095
    2 27532  51.6178 260.3276 0004296  73.7514 286.2958 16.51703348   247
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 29 deg N in the evening
    and leaves eclipse while southbound close to the equator before dawn.
    I estimate that this will decay near the northbound equator crossing
    at the end of the final predicted orbit above. This puts it to the NE
    of New Guinea over the western Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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