After a few days away, I have updated my decay Watch page. Here is a
summary:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #1808 = 65- 98 D = Alouette 2 Thor Agena B deb
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 22 01:18 Sep 24 01:15 +-1d 5.7 S 95.4 E
SatEvo Sep 22 15:40 Sep 23 22:27 +-12h 42.1 N 147.3 E
Latest elset:
Alouette 2 ThAg deb D 295 x 244 km
1 01808U 65098D 02265.19279104 .03209928 18414-1 68901-2 0 1904
2 01808 79.7161 120.0035 0038324 224.0858 135.7357 16.01639395732332
SatEvo prediction: See decay Watch page.
(..ends)
Alouette 2 ThAg deb D 192 x 174 km
1 01808U 65098D 02266.80615115 .37272315 80184+0 59302-2 0 91901
2 01808 79.7047 117.4817 0013613 218.1518 141.7516 16.33480798732592
Alouette 2 ThAg deb D 174 x 161 km
1 01808U 65098D 02266.86731363 .67427735 35679+1 57234-2 0 91904
2 01808 79.7029 117.3828 0010346 217.9192 142.0078 16.39398350732605
Note: I estimate that this will decay northbound following the end
of the final satEvo-predicted rev above. This puts it just to the
E of Japan.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11285 = 79- 20 A = InterCosmos 19
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 22 10:13 Sep 23 08:30 +-14h 43.3 S 92.8 E
SatEvo Sep 22 15:25 Sep 23 04:26 +-5h 47.3 N 172.9 W
Latest elset:
In-Cosmos 19 4.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 v 12 191 x 186 km
1 11285U 79020A 02265.38278072 .04622518 19445-5 91504-3 0 9940
2 11285 73.9220 239.3774 0003689 308.5853 51.5049 16.31438488275278
SatEvo prediction: see Decay Watch page.
(..ends)
In-Cosmos 19 4.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 v 12 152 x 150 km
1 11285U 79020A 02266.05503651 .24623825 56309+0 70057-3 0 99946
2 11285 73.9173 237.6897 0001905 306.7072 53.2753 16.45520622275384
In-Cosmos 19 4.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 v 12 142 x 140 km
1 11285U 79020A 02266.11577225 .43452177 21034+1 59278-3 0 99942
2 11285 73.9160 237.5349 0001476 306.5351 53.4513 16.49407473275391
Note: I predict that this will decay while northbound after the
end of the orbit given by my final predicted elset. This puts it
over the northern Pacific, just to the S of the Aleutian Is.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #15909 = 85- 61 A = Molniya 3-25
Final analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 21 15:06 Sep 21 10:45 +-1m 56.3 S 114.9 W
SatEvo Sep 22 15:15 Sep 21 10:46 -10+90m 53.6 S 109.1 W
Final elset:
Molniya 3-25 949 x 80 km
1 15909U 85061A 02264.26570907 .99999999 65644-5 81278-3 0 907
2 15909 62.1831 98.5775 0630277 267.5147 79.2212 15.17024298127478
Note: As often happens with Molniyas, the decay slipped much later
over the final days. I have it decaying over the far SE Pacific
following perigee on the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
Molniya 3-25 604 x 79 km
1 15909U 85061A 02264.39659869 2.76264956 60723+1 12441-2 0 90846
2 15909 62.1403 98.0494 0390702 266.3138 89.2111 15.76033528127491
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #18086 = 87- 48 D = Cosmos 1849 rocket
Final analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 19 05:58 Sep 19 15:01 +-6h 59.2 S 178.8 W
SatEvo Sep 22 14:35 Sep 19 16:00 +-5m 10.7 N 40.3 E
Final elset:
Cosmos 1849 r 227 x 66 km
1 18086U 87048D 02262.63809352 .99999999 00000-0 22022-3 0 82
2 18086 62.6969 104.3220 0123614 225.5663 133.6434 16.47401478121247
Note: I have been unable to fit a realistic SatEvo orbital
evolution through the final elsets, so my prediction is based
entirely on the final elset. I have it decaying southbound over
Ethiopia. SpaceCom's final decay notices failed to appear.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25887 = 99- 43 E = GlobalStar 24 Delta rocket
Final analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 20 21:08 Sep 20 20:55 +-7m 27.0 S 94.0 W
SatEvo Sep 22 15:00 Sep 20 20:12 -10+50m 26.8 N 96.4 E
Final elset:
Gbstr 24 Del r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 14 147 x 137 km
1 25887U 99043E 02263.77543210 .24365659 12519-4 31105-3 0 465
2 25887 52.2157 16.3737 0008194 195.1437 164.9860 16.48977363166903
Note: I show this decaying soon after the northbound equator crossing
at the end of the above rev. This puts it near the India-Myanmar
border.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Sep 22 2002 - 12:13:38 EDT