Decay watch; 2002 September 22

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Sep 22 2002 - 12:01:30 EDT

  • Next message: Björn Gimle: "96 72 A"

    After a few days away, I have updated my decay Watch page. Here is a 
    summary:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #1808 = 65- 98 D = Alouette 2 Thor Agena B deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 22 01:18     Sep 24 01:15 +-1d         5.7 S    95.4 E
    SatEvo     Sep 22 15:40     Sep 23 22:27 +-12h       42.1 N   147.3 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Alouette 2 ThAg deb D                            295 x 244 km
    1 01808U 65098D   02265.19279104  .03209928  18414-1  68901-2 0  1904
    2 01808  79.7161 120.0035 0038324 224.0858 135.7357 16.01639395732332
    
    SatEvo prediction: See decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Alouette 2 ThAg deb D                            192 x 174 km
    1 01808U 65098D   02266.80615115  .37272315  80184+0  59302-2 0 91901
    2 01808  79.7047 117.4817 0013613 218.1518 141.7516 16.33480798732592
    Alouette 2 ThAg deb D                            174 x 161 km
    1 01808U 65098D   02266.86731363  .67427735  35679+1  57234-2 0 91904
    2 01808  79.7029 117.3828 0010346 217.9192 142.0078 16.39398350732605
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay northbound following the end
    of the final satEvo-predicted rev above. This puts it just to the
    E of Japan.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11285 = 79- 20 A = InterCosmos 19
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 22 10:13     Sep 23 08:30 +-14h       43.3 S    92.8 E
    SatEvo     Sep 22 15:25     Sep 23 04:26 +-5h        47.3 N   172.9 W
    
    Latest elset:
    In-Cosmos 19     4.3  0.0  0.0  5.3 v   12       191 x 186 km
    1 11285U 79020A   02265.38278072  .04622518  19445-5  91504-3 0  9940
    2 11285  73.9220 239.3774 0003689 308.5853  51.5049 16.31438488275278
    
    SatEvo prediction: see Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    In-Cosmos 19     4.3  0.0  0.0  5.3 v   12       152 x 150 km
    1 11285U 79020A   02266.05503651  .24623825  56309+0  70057-3 0 99946
    2 11285  73.9173 237.6897 0001905 306.7072  53.2753 16.45520622275384
    In-Cosmos 19     4.3  0.0  0.0  5.3 v   12       142 x 140 km
    1 11285U 79020A   02266.11577225  .43452177  21034+1  59278-3 0 99942
    2 11285  73.9160 237.5349 0001476 306.5351  53.4513 16.49407473275391
    
    Note: I predict that this will decay while northbound after the
    end of the orbit given by my final predicted elset. This puts it
    over the northern Pacific, just to the S of the Aleutian Is.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15909 = 85- 61 A = Molniya 3-25
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 21 15:06     Sep 21 10:45 +-1m        56.3 S   114.9 W
    SatEvo     Sep 22 15:15     Sep 21 10:46 -10+90m     53.6 S   109.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-25                                     949 x 80 km
    1 15909U 85061A   02264.26570907  .99999999  65644-5  81278-3 0   907
    2 15909  62.1831  98.5775 0630277 267.5147  79.2212 15.17024298127478
    
    Note: As often happens with Molniyas, the decay slipped much later
    over the final days. I have it decaying over the far SE Pacific
    following perigee on the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Molniya 3-25                                     604 x 79 km
    1 15909U 85061A   02264.39659869 2.76264956  60723+1  12441-2 0 90846
    2 15909  62.1403  98.0494 0390702 266.3138  89.2111 15.76033528127491
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18086 = 87- 48 D = Cosmos 1849 rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 19 05:58     Sep 19 15:01 +-6h        59.2 S   178.8 W
    SatEvo     Sep 22 14:35     Sep 19 16:00 +-5m        10.7 N    40.3 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1849 r                                    227 x 66 km
    1 18086U 87048D   02262.63809352  .99999999  00000-0  22022-3 0    82
    2 18086  62.6969 104.3220 0123614 225.5663 133.6434 16.47401478121247
    
    Note: I have been unable to fit a realistic SatEvo orbital
    evolution through the final elsets, so my prediction is based
    entirely on the final elset. I have it decaying southbound over
    Ethiopia. SpaceCom's final decay notices failed to appear.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25887 = 99- 43 E = GlobalStar 24 Delta rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 20 21:08     Sep 20 20:55 +-7m        27.0 S    94.0 W
    SatEvo     Sep 22 15:00     Sep 20 20:12 -10+50m     26.8 N    96.4 E
    
    Final elset:
    Gbstr 24 Del r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   14       147 x 137 km
    1 25887U 99043E   02263.77543210  .24365659  12519-4  31105-3 0   465
    2 25887  52.2157  16.3737 0008194 195.1437 164.9860 16.48977363166903
    
    Note: I show this decaying soon after the northbound equator crossing
    at the end of the above rev. This puts it near the India-Myanmar
    border.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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