Another decayer has been added to my Decay Watch page but please note
that no further updates will be possible until about September 22. Check
the page for predicted elsets.
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Object: #15909 = 85- 61 A = Molniya 3-25
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 15 21:12 Sep 18 17:03 +-2d 34.8 S 170.0 W
SatEvo Sep 17 18:30 Sep 19 22:39 +-18h
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-25 4628 x 84 km
1 15909U 85061A 02260.70564470 .32543809 86357-5 65340-3 0 526
2 15909 62.2108 107.0381 2601580 265.4086 65.0188 10.63640324127038
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Object: #18086 = 87- 48 D = Cosmos 1849 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 17 07:42 Sep 19 17:50 +-2d 46.8 S 52.1 E
SatEvo Sep 17 18:40 Sep 19 21:11 +-17h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1849 r 1496 x 105 km
1 18086U 87048D 02260.70364739 .25503950 34189-5 66788-3 0 9930
2 18086 62.7524 110.8174 0968809 200.6350 155.3198 14.27470982120941
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Object: #25887 = 99- 43 E = GlobalStar 24 Delta rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 17 04:38 Sep 21 02:20 +-2d 51.7 N 59.0 E
SatEvo Sep 17 18:45 Sep 20 21:40 +-1d
Latest elset:
Gbstr 24 Del r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 14 257 x 201 km
1 25887U 99043E 02260.59971006 .02205428 11714-4 11909-2 0 266
2 25887 52.2180 33.7810 0042468 153.4797 315.3598 16.16710863166389
Note: This enters eclipse on the approach to southern apex near
51 deg S at 19:00 local time. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near
37 deg N before dawn.
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Object: #27377 = 02- 5 F = Iridium 90 Delta 2 rocket
Final analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Sep 17 01:34 Sep 16 22:09 +-7m 36.0 N 26.0 W
SatEvo Sep 16 20:30 Sep 16 22:09 +-70m 33.4 N 25.9 W
^^ Corrected from 17th
Final elset:
Irid 90 Del2 r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 10 166 x 137 km
1 27377U 02005F 02259.73537486 .17848104 -15760-5 33946-3 0 3208
2 27377 84.3807 298.4705 0022172 254.6574 105.1934 16.45298002 33815
Note: No further elsets appeared so my final pre-decay decay estimate
stands, once you allow me to correct the typo that had it exactly
one day later. I have it decaying following the northbound equator
crossing at the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev:
Irid 90 Del2 r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 10 143 x 124 km
1 27377U 02005F 02259.85680166 .45714094 23064+1 35125-3 0 93206
2 27377 84.3784 298.3610 0014774 254.1251 105.7120 16.52191277 33838
This puts in northbound over the eastern North Atlantic, to the S of
the Azores. For once, SpaceCom's estimate is in close agreement.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Sep 17 2002 - 15:06:59 EDT