Decay watch: 2002 September 17

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Sep 17 2002 - 14:57:02 EDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Re: Epoch Date Age Analysis"

    Another decayer has been added to my Decay Watch page but please note 
    that no further updates will be possible until about September 22. Check 
    the page for predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15909 = 85- 61 A = Molniya 3-25
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 15 21:12     Sep 18 17:03 +-2d        34.8 S   170.0 W
    SatEvo     Sep 17 18:30     Sep 19 22:39 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-25                                     4628 x 84 km
    1 15909U 85061A   02260.70564470  .32543809  86357-5  65340-3 0   526
    2 15909  62.2108 107.0381 2601580 265.4086  65.0188 10.63640324127038
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18086 = 87- 48 D = Cosmos 1849 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 17 07:42     Sep 19 17:50 +-2d        46.8 S    52.1 E
    SatEvo     Sep 17 18:40     Sep 19 21:11 +-17h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1849 r                                    1496 x 105 km
    1 18086U 87048D   02260.70364739  .25503950  34189-5  66788-3 0  9930
    2 18086  62.7524 110.8174 0968809 200.6350 155.3198 14.27470982120941
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25887 = 99- 43 E = GlobalStar 24 Delta rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 17 04:38     Sep 21 02:20 +-2d        51.7 N    59.0 E
    SatEvo     Sep 17 18:45     Sep 20 21:40 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Gbstr 24 Del r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   14       257 x 201 km
    1 25887U 99043E   02260.59971006  .02205428  11714-4  11909-2 0   266
    2 25887  52.2180  33.7810 0042468 153.4797 315.3598 16.16710863166389
    
    Note: This enters eclipse on the approach to southern apex near
    51 deg S at 19:00 local time. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near
    37 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27377 = 02-  5 F = Iridium 90 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 17 01:34     Sep 16 22:09 +-7m        36.0 N   26.0 W
    SatEvo     Sep 16 20:30     Sep 16 22:09 +-70m       33.4 N   25.9 W
                                     ^^ Corrected from 17th
    Final elset:
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       166 x 137 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.73537486  .17848104 -15760-5  33946-3 0  3208
    2 27377  84.3807 298.4705 0022172 254.6574 105.1934 16.45298002 33815
    
    Note: No further elsets appeared so my final pre-decay decay estimate
    stands, once you allow me to correct the typo that had it exactly
    one day later. I have it decaying following the northbound equator
    crossing at the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       143 x 124 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.85680166  .45714094  23064+1  35125-3 0 93206
    2 27377  84.3784 298.3610 0014774 254.1251 105.7120 16.52191277 33838
    This puts in northbound over the eastern North Atlantic, to the S of
    the Azores. For once, SpaceCom's estimate is in close agreement.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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