Decay watch: 2000 Sep 19

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Sep 19 2000 - 13:49:40 PDT

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    Decay analyses and predictions for two more decayers are included in
    today's update to my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #14693 = 84- 11 E = Palapa B2 r (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep 22 09:34 +-2d        14.1 S   168.5 W
       SatEvo:   Sep 22 02:52 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Palapa B2 r                                      192 x 155 km
    1 14693U 84011E   00263.38768219  .03243152 -83897-5  25920-3 0  8252
    2 14693  28.1138 152.5748 0028136 195.8843 164.0816 16.37213289912806
    
    The latest elset, which has a too-high high drag value, shows this 2 sec
    late against yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #25497 = 85- 56 F = Giotto Ariane 1 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep 18 21:42 +-1m         5.0 N     3.4 E
       SatEvo:   (not predicted)
    
    Final elset:
    Giotto Ariane 1 deb F                            736 x 246 km
    1 25497U 85056F   00257.44641319  .03961291  53835-2  21318-1 0  7987
    2 25497   7.6427 231.8906 0356859   8.6671  67.8123 15.24914371219149
    
    Only a single, precise, decay analysis has been released by SpaceCom.
    Although I have another four elsets for the same orbit as the final
    elset, above, there are too few other recent elsets on which to base my
    SatEvo decay analysis.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #25737 = 99- 26 C = Terriers Pegasus rocket (stage 3)
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep 23 15:17 +-2d        46.5 S   109.3 E
       SatEvo:   Sep 23 19:33 +-1.1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Ters Peg stg3    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       241 x 227 km
    1 25737U 99026C   00263.53491795  .01392407  14786-2  11197-2 0  4860
    2 25737  97.5737 163.4989 0010694  30.3091 329.8816 16.14613488 75865
    
    Eclipse entry occurs when this is southbound over the Arctic, with
    exclipse exit over the Antarctic, also southbound.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #25995 = 99- 68 B = Terra Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep 21 15:31 +-1d        30.1 N   146.0 E
       SatEvo:   Sep 21 11:54 +-10h
    
    Latest elset:
    Terra Cent r     9.0  0.0  0.0  4.5 d   20       240 x 200 km
    1 25995U 99068B   00263.55240298  .02645337  29047-5  12848-2 0  4030
    2 25995  98.2136  20.5132 0030470 215.7152 144.2081 16.19921928 42612
    
    The latest elset shows this running 35 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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