Geomagnetic conditions have been disturbed for the past two days, which may be why decays have been shifting earlier. There are reported to have been three Earth-directed coronal mass ejections from the Sun since Friday, so expect even more disturbed conditions to come, with the possibility of auroral displays, most likely on Monday and Tuesday. I have just updated my Decay Watch page for the second time today. Here is a summary for each object - check the page for more details plus predicted elsets. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #14693 = 84- 11 E = Palapa B2 r (PAM-D) Decay prediction: SpaceCom: Sep 9 06:32 +-4d 10.5 N 53.9 W SatEvo: Sep 22 15:43 +-1.5d Latest elset: Palapa B2 r 207 x 164 km 1 14693U 84011E 00261.49506944 .00970406 -82014-5 12323-3 0 8155 2 14693 28.1207 167.7081 0032542 161.5449 194.4785 16.32764814912485 _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #25310 = 98- 23 E = Globalstar 6 Delta 2 rocket Final decay analysis: SpaceCom: Sep 17 05:29 +-40m 52.9 N 134.2 W SatEvo: Sep 17 05:03 -10+50m 0.0 141.8 E Final elset: Gblstr 6 Dlt r 6.0 3.0 0.0 4.5 d 14 151 x 131 km 1 25310U 98023E 00261.14966496 .26420323 12818-4 27684-3 0 8745 2 25310 52.8522 214.2258 0015612 312.4229 47.5879 16.49431637130108 The final elset shows this running 14 sec early against my final prediction. I show this decaying near the following northbound equator crossing to the N of New Guinea, though it is possible that it survived as much as another half-rev to reach the next southbound equator crossing over the Amazon Delta. SpaceCom puts the decay halfway between these points, near northern apex S of the Gulf of Alaska. If it were still in orbit, it would have crossed N America from Calgary, Alberta, at 05:28 UTC to N Carolina at 05:35, passing near Chicago at 05:32. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #25995 = 99- 68 B = Terra Centaur rocket Decay predictions: SpaceCom: Sep 22 02:47 +-3d 59.7 S 147.8 E SatEvo: Sep 21 07:29 +-22h Latest elset: Terra Cent r 9.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 d 20 273 x 221 km 1 25995U 99068B 00261.51749292 .01940730 28457-5 18519-2 0 3872 2 25995 98.2092 17.9645 0038990 219.5166 199.6260 16.10051891 42284 _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #26491 = 88- 81 F = GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb Decay predictions: SpaceCom: Sep 17 22:25 +-4h 4.8 S 172.6 W SatEvo: Sep 17 22:31 +-2h 0.5 S 138.6 W Latest elset: GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb F 402 x 149 km 1 26491U 88081F 00261.63015261 .34149118 -32263-4 60085-2 0 354 2 26491 7.4238 202.6073 0189830 322.9909 35.8755 15.99537101 50134 The latest elset shows this running 3.5 min early against yesterday's prediction - possibly as a result of disturbed geomagnetic conditions over the past day. I predict that this will decay close to the time of SatEvo's final northbound equator crossing over the E Pacific: GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb F 173 x 120 km 1 26491U 88081F 00261.93873663 3.80919141 50000+2 33209-2 0 90352 2 26491 7.4220 199.9096 0040317 328.3182 31.4399 16.47373072 50187 _____________________________________________________________________ Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Sep 17 2000 - 12:44:49 PDT