Decay watch: 2000 Sep 17

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Sep 17 2000 - 12:43:43 PDT

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    Geomagnetic conditions have been disturbed for the past two days, which
    may be why decays have been shifting earlier. There are reported to have
    been three Earth-directed coronal mass ejections from the Sun since
    Friday, so expect even more disturbed conditions to come, with the
    possibility of auroral displays, most likely on Monday and Tuesday.
    
    I have just updated my Decay Watch page for the second time today. Here
    is a summary for each object - check the page for more details plus
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #14693 = 84- 11 E = Palapa B2 r (PAM-D)
    
    Decay prediction:
       SpaceCom: Sep  9 06:32 +-4d        10.5 N    53.9 W
       SatEvo:   Sep 22 15:43 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Palapa B2 r                                      207 x 164 km
    1 14693U 84011E   00261.49506944  .00970406 -82014-5  12323-3 0  8155
    2 14693  28.1207 167.7081 0032542 161.5449 194.4785 16.32764814912485
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #25310 = 98- 23 E = Globalstar 6 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Final decay analysis:
       SpaceCom: Sep 17 05:29 +-40m       52.9 N   134.2 W
       SatEvo:   Sep 17 05:03 -10+50m      0.0     141.8 E
    
    Final elset:
    Gblstr 6 Dlt r   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   14       151 x 131 km
    1 25310U 98023E   00261.14966496  .26420323  12818-4  27684-3 0  8745
    2 25310  52.8522 214.2258 0015612 312.4229  47.5879 16.49431637130108
    
    The final elset shows this running 14 sec early against my final
    prediction. I show this decaying near the following northbound equator
    crossing to the N of New Guinea, though it is possible that it survived
    as much as another half-rev to reach the next southbound equator
    crossing over the Amazon Delta. SpaceCom puts the decay halfway between
    these points, near northern apex S of the Gulf of Alaska. If it were
    still in orbit, it would have crossed N America from Calgary, Alberta,
    at 05:28 UTC to N Carolina at 05:35, passing near Chicago at 05:32.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #25995 = 99- 68 B = Terra Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep 22 02:47 +-3d        59.7 S   147.8 E
       SatEvo:   Sep 21 07:29 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Terra Cent r     9.0  0.0  0.0  4.5 d   20       273 x 221 km
    1 25995U 99068B   00261.51749292  .01940730  28457-5  18519-2 0  3872
    2 25995  98.2092  17.9645 0038990 219.5166 199.6260 16.10051891 42284
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #26491 = 88- 81 F = GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep 17 22:25 +-4h         4.8 S   172.6 W
       SatEvo:   Sep 17 22:31 +-2h         0.5 S   138.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb F                           402 x 149 km
    1 26491U 88081F   00261.63015261  .34149118 -32263-4  60085-2 0   354
    2 26491   7.4238 202.6073 0189830 322.9909  35.8755 15.99537101 50134
    
    The latest elset shows this running 3.5 min early against yesterday's
    prediction - possibly as a result of disturbed geomagnetic conditions
    over the past day. I predict that this will decay close to the time of
    SatEvo's final northbound equator crossing over the E Pacific:
    GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb F                           173 x 120 km
    1 26491U 88081F   00261.93873663 3.80919141  50000+2  33209-2 0 90352
    2 26491   7.4220 199.9096 0040317 328.3182  31.4399 16.47373072 50187
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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