SatEvo decay list #105 (issued 2000 September 12) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 November 5, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ----- Decay (2000) ----- Predicted Actual? 23650 95- 17 E Orbcomm 1 Pegasus deb August 19.3 24190 94- 29 JR STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 19.5 21538 91- 46 E Gorizont 23 aux mot August 22.32 Note 2 26361 00- 25 B GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1 August 23.37 21389 75- 52 DK Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb August 28 22968 94- 2 F GALS 1 aux motor August 28.87 26479 00- 49 C Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform August 29.44 26468 64- 49 N Cosmos 41 deb August 30 26478 00- 49 B Raduga-1 5 Proton r August 30.91 23291 85-118 N Cosmos 1710 Proton deb September 2.0 Note 1 12547 81- 58 A Cosmos 1278 September 2.12 26105 00- 13 F Express 6-A aux mot September 2.94 20399 89-101 E Cosmos 2054 aux mot September 3.02 26472 00- 49 E Raduga-1 5 Proton deb September 3 23049 94- 21 G Cosmos 2275 aux mot September 3.81 26136 99- 57 Y CBERS LM4 deb September 4.9 Note 1 23941 96- 37 B TOMS r September 5.26 26485 00- 51 C Sirius 2 Proton platform September 5.67 26484 00- 51 B Sirius 2 Proton r September 6.10 21690 90-105 AE DMSP F10 deb September 7.4 Note 1 10362 77- 91 A Cosmos 955 September 7.79 24032 94- 29 CD STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 8.4 Note 1 25180 87- 68 F Met 2-16 Tsyklon deb September 10.6 Note 1 24984 94- 29 ACS STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 10.8 Note 1 13775 70- 91 AR Cosmos 375 deb September 11 Note 1 25813 89-101 K Cos 2354 Proton deb September 12.7 26456 99- 57 LB CBERS LM4 deb September 16 5440 71- 71 C Eole Scout deb September 18 25310 98- 23 E Globalstar 6 Delta r September 18 26491 88- 81 F GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb September 18 20021 89- 16 N M-3S2 deb September 20 25497 85- 56 F Giotto Ariane 1 deb September 20 26453 99- 57 KY CBERS LM4 deb September 20 25995 99- 68 B Terra Centaur r September 22 14693 84- 11 E Palapa B2 r September 24 26413 92- 72 G Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb September 24 25737 99- 26 C Terriers Peg stg3 September 25 5070 70- 89 AH Cosmos 374 deb September 26 11221 76-120 AY Cosmos 880 deb September 27 23210 94- 50 H Cosmos 2287 aux mot September 28 26439 99- 57 KL CBERS LM4 deb September 29 24341 94- 29 NS STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30 26149 99- 57 AK CBERS LM4 deb September 30 21829 91- 87 F Raduga 28 aux motor October 7 18984 88- 6 F DMSP F9 deb October 8 25129 97- 86 D Asiasat 3 r2 October 8 24238 94- 29 LM STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 9 23971 94- 29 R STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 12 26138 99- 57 AA CBERS LM4 deb October 13 25234 98- 12 B Teledesic 1 October 16 25547 98- 68 B Bonum Delta 2 r October 17 26403 00- 40 B EchoStar 6 Centaur r October 18 26408 00- 40 B GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1 October 18 26431 99- 57 KC CBERS LM4 deb October 18 7967 72- 58 CT Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb October 19 4325 69- 82 DY Thorad Agena D deb October 22 23954 96- 41 B GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1 October 22 23817 96- 15 B Intelsat 707 Ariane r October 25 26425 99- 57 JW CBERS LM4 deb October 26 20255 89- 78 A Molniya 1-76 October 28 Note 3 23549 95- 18 A Ofeq 3 October 30 26438 99- 57 KK CBERS LM4 deb October 31 24258 94- 29 MH STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 3 25031 97- 67 B GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1 November 8 25069 97- 75 C JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r November 10 25390 98- 42 B Tubsat N1 November 10 23501 95- 8 A Cosmos 2306 November 25 16243 85-105 D Cosmos 1701 r2 December Note 3 25032 97- 67 C GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2 December 25470 98- 51 D Iridium 79 December 14520 83-114 D Molniya 1-59 r2 2001 January Note 3 16110 85- 90 A Cosmos 1689 2001 January 25124 97- 85 B Early Bird r 2001 January 25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 2001 January 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 2001 February Note 3 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 2001 February Note 3 Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. #21538 - Gorizont 23 aux motor was incorrectly identified as the "Gorizont 32 aux motor" in earlier lists. 3. Thanks to Michael Earl, Space Surveillance Research and Analysis Laboratory of the Royal Military College of Canada, for alerting me to this decay. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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