SatEvo decay list #105

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Sep 12 2000 - 15:11:47 PDT

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    SatEvo decay list #105  (issued 2000 September 12)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 November 5, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     23650   95- 17 E   Orbcomm 1 Pegasus deb            August 19.3
     24190   94- 29 JR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               August 19.5
     21538   91- 46 E   Gorizont 23 aux mot              August 22.32 Note 2
     26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1              August 23.37
     21389   75- 52 DK  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb             August 28
     22968   94-  2 F   GALS 1 aux motor                 August 28.87
     26479   00- 49 C   Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform    August 29.44
     26468   64- 49 N   Cosmos 41 deb                    August 30
     26478   00- 49 B   Raduga-1 5 Proton r              August 30.91
     23291   85-118 N   Cosmos 1710 Proton deb        September  2.0  Note 1
     12547   81- 58 A   Cosmos 1278                   September  2.12
     26105   00- 13 F   Express 6-A aux mot           September  2.94
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot           September  3.02
     26472   00- 49 E   Raduga-1 5 Proton deb         September  3
     23049   94- 21 G   Cosmos 2275 aux mot           September  3.81
     26136   99- 57 Y   CBERS LM4 deb                 September  4.9  Note 1
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                        September  5.26
     26485   00- 51 C   Sirius 2 Proton platform      September  5.67
     26484   00- 51 B   Sirius 2 Proton r             September  6.10
     21690   90-105 AE  DMSP F10 deb                  September  7.4  Note 1
     10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955                    September  7.79
     24032   94- 29 CD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  8.4  Note 1
     25180   87- 68 F   Met 2-16 Tsyklon deb          September 10.6  Note 1
     24984   94- 29 ACS STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 10.8  Note 1
     13775   70- 91 AR  Cosmos 375 deb                September 11    Note 1
     25813   89-101 K   Cos 2354 Proton deb  September 12.7
     26456   99- 57 LB  CBERS LM4 deb        September 16
      5440   71- 71 C   Eole Scout deb       September 18
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r September 18
     26491   88- 81 F   GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb September 18
     20021   89- 16 N   M-3S2 deb            September 20
     25497   85- 56 F   Giotto Ariane 1 deb  September 20
     26453   99- 57 KY  CBERS LM4 deb        September 20
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r      September 22
     14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r          September 24
     26413   92- 72 G   Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb  September 24
     25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Peg stg3    September 25
      5070   70- 89 AH  Cosmos 374 deb       September 26
     11221   76-120 AY  Cosmos 880 deb       September 27
     23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux mot  September 28
     26439   99- 57 KL  CBERS LM4 deb        September 29
     24341   94- 29 NS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 30
     26149   99- 57 AK  CBERS LM4 deb        September 30
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor    October  7
     18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb            October  8
     25129   97- 86 D   Asiasat 3 r2           October  8
     24238   94- 29 LM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  9
     23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 12
     26138   99- 57 AA  CBERS LM4 deb          October 13
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1            October 16
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October 17
     26403   00- 40 B   EchoStar 6 Centaur r   October 18
     26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1    October 18
     26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb          October 18
      7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  October 19
      4325   69- 82 DY  Thorad Agena D deb     October 22
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October 22
     23817   96- 15 B   Intelsat 707 Ariane r  October 25
     26425   99- 57 JW  CBERS LM4 deb          October 26
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October 28 Note 3
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October 30
     26438   99- 57 KK  CBERS LM4 deb          October 31
     24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  3
     25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1   November  8
     25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November 10
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1             November 10
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November 25
     16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r2        December    Note 3
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   December
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December
     14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2   2001 January    Note 3
     16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689       2001 January
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r      2001 January
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26     2001 February    Note 3
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2  2001 February    Note 3
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. #21538 - Gorizont 23 aux motor was incorrectly identified as
    the "Gorizont 32 aux motor" in earlier lists.
    
    3. Thanks to Michael Earl, Space Surveillance Research and 
    Analysis Laboratory of the Royal Military College of Canada,
    for alerting me to this decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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