My Decay Watch page now carries the final analyses for #20399 and #26105, plus predictions for several of the current decayers. In summary, with the latest elsets for the yet-to-decay objects collected at the end... _____________________________________________________________________ #10362 = 77- 91 A = Cosmos 955 Current decay estimates: SpaceCom: Sep 8 05:22 +-4d 28.1 N 165.3 E SatEvo: Sep 7 21:53 +-1.5 This enters eclipse while southbound near 32 deg N in the morning sky and exits eclipse while southbound near 29 deg S, also before dawn. _____________________________________________________________________ #14693 = 84- 11 E = Palapa B2 r (PAM-D) Current decay estimates: SpaceCom: Sep 9 06:32 +-4d 10.5 N 53.9 W SatEvo: Sep 26 +-8d SpaceCom appears to be premature with this decay prediction - I still show it surviving until much later in the month. It enters eclipse while northbound near 9 deg S in the evening and leaves eclipse southbound near 22 deg N in the morning. _____________________________________________________________________ #20399 = 89-101 E = Cosmos 2054 aux motor Final decay estimates: SpaceCom: Sep 3 00:31 +-55m 33.4 N 87.4 W SatEvo: Sep 3 00:22 +-30m 23.4 N 100.9 W Final elset: C 2054 aux motor 193 x 114 km 1 20399U 89101E 00246.94930062 .99999999 11954-4 17784-2 0 27 2 20399 46.5533 223.5374 0060422 6.7224 353.3911 16.44622148107946 I think it likely that this decayed near or soon after perigee on the orbit after the one given by the final elset. My estimate puts it over Mexico on a northbound track that would have carried it across the USA from Louisiana at 00:25 UTC to Washington, DC, at 00:28, Philadelphia at 00:29 and Boston at 00:30. SpaceCom puts the decay point to the W of Atlanta but appears to have had no fix on that rev. _____________________________________________________________________ #23049 = 94- 21 G = Cosmos 2275 aux motor Current decay estimates: SpaceCom: Sep 3 19:36 +-8h 45.2 S 56.1 E SatEvo: Sep 3 19:36 +-90m 48.3 S 58.9 E SatEvo prediction: C 2275 aux motor 514 x 90 km 1 23049U 94021G 00247.71353977 1.46438419 17847+1 10495-2 0 96094 2 23049 63.8040 123.2003 0317347 207.7117 150.5607 15.90224159102591 C 2275 aux motor 397 x 89 km 1 23049U 94021G 00247.77611066 2.02283648 51288+1 11642-2 0 96093 2 23049 63.7954 122.9623 0232758 207.7048 151.0357 16.11499884102606 C 2275 aux motor 201 x 86 km 1 23049U 94021G 00247.83770960 6.03770138 50000+2 17836-2 0 96092 2 23049 63.7854 122.7189 0088292 207.6980 151.8288 16.48358356102616 I estimate that this will decay soon after perigee on the penultimate of these predicted orbits. This put it southbound over the S Indian Ocean. _____________________________________________________________________ #23941 = 96- 37 B = TOMS r Current decay estimates: SpaceCom: Sep 5 08:31 +-1d 21.8 N 26.2 W SatEvo: Sep 4 23:39 +-8h 17.1 N 106.4 E I show the decay occurring northbound in the area of Vietnam. _____________________________________________________________________ #26105 = 00- 13 F = Express 2A aux motor Final decay estimates: SpaceCom: Sep 3 02:47 +-14h 46.7 S 47.0 E SatEvo: Sep 2 22:34 +-6h 47.0 N 62.9 W The decay analysis is uncertain. For various reasons, none of the final four elsets is credible so my final analysis is the one I posted more than a day ago. This puts the decay near northern apex over the Gulf of St Lawrence. My final prediction ends: Express 2A aux motor 1096 x 83 km 1 26105U 00013F 00246.86066238 3.62664983 57221+1 26744-2 0 92125 2 26105 46.9323 172.7522 0727003 65.9409 301.4951 14.92800277 4716 Express 2A aux motor 753 x 81 km 1 26105U 00013F 00246.92599091 5.46763471 17267+2 29146-2 0 92122 2 26105 46.9177 172.4093 0494783 66.2754 298.8369 15.49889879 4727 _____________________________________________________________________ Current elsets: Cosmos 955 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 24 233 x 222 km 1 10362U 77091A 00247.48289771 .01184194 -93997-6 77849-3 0 5856 2 10362 81.1796 234.1050 0008444 165.5819 194.6514 16.17083456261095 Palapa B2 r 261 x 187 km 1 14693U 84011E 00247.18305724 .00305134 -79466-5 11833-3 0 7733 2 14693 28.1261 280.4535 0056231 339.7208 20.1175 16.18429720910164 C 2275 aux motor 679 x 92 km 1 23049U 94021G 00247.58656050 .99999999 27297-6 97607-3 0 6143 2 23049 63.8338 123.6904 0433874 209.6162 149.0921 15.60712037102574 TOMS r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 2.3 221 x 190 km 1 23941U 96037B 00247.45101285 .03049340 23590-5 10098-2 0 317 2 23941 97.1955 86.0449 0023314 356.6963 3.4212 16.25100315228614 _____________________________________________________________________ Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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