Decay watch: 2000 Sep 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Sep 02 2000 - 06:54:16 PDT

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    With yet another two decayers, #10362 (Cosmos 955) and #14693 (Palapa B2
    rocket), I have updated my Decay Watch page with analyses of seven
    decayers - too much data to report here. The one final report is...
    
    #12547 = 81- 58 A = Cosmos 1278
    
    Final decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Sep  2 03:04 +-14m       39.8 S    33.1 W
       SatEvo:   Sep  2 02:58 +-15m       32.2 S    38.9 W
    
    Final elsets:
    Cosmos 1278                                      641 x 86 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00246.02326346  .99999999  91324-6  15458-2 0  2927
    2 12547  62.7294 148.3467 0411275 201.4795 157.4004 15.68339039142456
    Cosmos 1278                                      382 x 84 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00246.08608394  .99999999  54480-5  12422-2 0  2939
    2 12547  62.7295 148.1770 0225157 208.6685 149.7226 16.15124381142467
    
    This decayed one orbit later than I expected, probably over the SW
    Atlantic to the SE of Rio De Janeiro after passing over Brazil. The
    final elset has it only 29 sec early against my final prediction but my
    suspicion that it would decay on the previous orbit proved wrong.
    However, I think that this might have been self luminous as it met (and
    evidently survived) very high drag forces as it swept southbound through
    its very low perigee between Brazil and Africa on that rev; the drag
    (ndot2) terms on the two final orbits were probably closer to 3 and 6
    rather than the 0.99etc quoted above.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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