Decay watch: 2000 Sep 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Sep 01 2000 - 15:12:48 PDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "Updated Lacrosse 4 elements"

    With the addition of #23941 = 96- 37 B = TOMS rocket, due for decay on
    September 5, there are now five current decayers. Predictions for them
    all are on my Decay Watch page. The only two that are imminent are...
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #12547 = 81- 58 A = Cosmos 1278
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep  2 01:49 +-4h        56.4 S    89.8 E
       SatEvo:   Sep  2 01:30 +-2h        36.9 S    13.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1278                                      1099 x 93 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00245.82652698  .99999999 -53432-5  19348-2 0  2870
    2 12547  62.7887 149.1991 0720867 197.8383 160.2506 14.90662796142425
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1278                                      970 x 95 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00245.89309545 1.73180972  13651+1  22703-2 0 92874
    2 12547  62.7821 148.9718 0633056 197.8497 159.8221 15.11401273142430
    Cosmos 1278                                      821 x 94 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00245.95880381 2.08519653  24028+1  23754-2 0 92871
    2 12547  62.7718 148.7397 0531927 197.8615 160.1955 15.36276875142447
    Cosmos 1278                                      643 x 92 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00246.02336318 2.75908739  50753+1  25681-2 0 92872
    2 12547  62.7626 148.5025 0408036 197.8737 160.6483 15.66967341142450
    Cosmos 1278                                      392 x 90 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00246.08647474 5.05848281  42168+2  30384-2 0 92875
    2 12547  62.7444 148.2582 0228010 197.8864 161.2978 16.12235398142465
    
    I suspect this decay is most likely to occur while southbound over the
    south Atlantic on the penultimate predicted orbit above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #26105 = 00- 13 F = Express 2A aux motor
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep  3 01:04 +-1d        45.7 N   113.3 W
       SatEvo:   Sep  2 13:37 +-8h
    
    Latest elset:
    Express 2A aux motor                             3821 x 97 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00245.77275509  .99999999  32273-4  37196-2 0  2063
    2 26105  47.0377 176.8639 2232851  61.6735 319.0800 11.40512056  4577
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Express 2A aux motor                             3115 x 102 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.02643502 1.59500447  52375+0  56925-2 0 92056
    2 26105  47.0259 176.0059 1886165  62.9886 315.0127 12.16353662  4609
    Express 2A aux motor                             2400 x 99 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.26405527 2.12614431  11002+1  55985-2 0 92052
    2 26105  46.9854 175.1626 1508324  63.8080 310.9152 13.03249518  4638
    Express 2A aux motor                             2141 x 97 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.33947925 2.41462229  14989+1  55341-2 0 92054
    2 26105  46.9733 174.8681 1362898  64.0945 309.3171 13.37377641  4648
    Express 2A aux motor                             1864 x 95 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.41286203 2.82034205  25089+1  54031-2 0 92050
    2 26105  46.9556 174.5655 1201940  64.3890 307.5399 13.75593982  4654
    Express 2A aux motor                             1557 x 93 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.48403289 3.49658454  43368+1  53498-2 0 92050
    2 26105  46.9396 174.2534 1016459  64.6931 305.4892 14.20127453  4660
    Express 2A aux motor                             1196 x 90 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.55268143 4.76422926  10259+2  53818-2 0 92050
    2 26105  46.9195 173.9295 0787804  65.0089 302.9669 14.75711582  4671
    Express 2A aux motor                             702 x 86 km
    1 26105U 00013F   00246.61812439 8.98812468  50000+2  61884-2 0 92052
    2 26105  46.8990 173.5891 0454199  65.3411 299.3211 15.57854078  4683
    
    Note: The prediction is very uncertain. I put decay near perigee on the
    penultimate of the predicted orbits, possibly near northern apex while
    eastbound over Kazakhstan.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Sep 01 2000 - 15:14:50 PDT