Re: Foton RB decay

Harro.Zimmer (
Sat, 25 Sep 1999 14:49:08 +0200

Report time: 11:50 UTC

I was too tired last night (UTC) to update my MPM prediction for the 1999-048B
(#25903) decay. But let me give some remarks to the comments here on the list.
At first the FINAL REPORT from SpaceCom - prepared 25 September, 03:01 UTC- with 
this decay figures:
                25 September, 02:55 UTC +/- 01 minutes (62.3N, 178.7E)
on a ascending pass over the Bering Sea.
I agree fully with Alans conclusions about the reliability of the last released
ELSET - 99268.0444... - forget it.
MPM delivers with the ELSETs 99267.801.... and 99267.983... a decay at
               25 September, 02:53 UTC +/- 22 minutes  (60.0N, 164.1E)
on the same pass. SpaceComs precise decay time - based on positive or negative 
datas from their CONUS northern sensor network- seems in this case more realistic 
then my MPM results.
An analysis of Mikes observation with a more sophisticated program confirms
generally Teds and Alans statements. For Mikes position the maximum altitude
was 17.63on 01:36:39.7 UTC, Azimuth: 238.78. It was definitely a shadow pass
(start shadow: 01:33:18.9 UTC). At this time the RB was - based on the above
mentioned ELSETs and the special model - on a altitude of 138.0 +/- 1.0 km.
As Alan has stated, it would be very interesting to have some more informations
from Mike about his observation. 

Berlin, Germany