SatEvo decay list #84

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 11 Sep 1999 16:22:15 +0100

SatEvo decay list #84  (issued 1999 September 11)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 1999 October 31, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.

I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24272   64- 26 H   Transit 9 deb                    August 31
 25761   99- 10 E   Raguda 104 aux motor          September  2.19 Note 2
 25691   86- 17 NE  Mir deb                       September  2
 24183   94- 29 JJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  3    Note 1
 25518   98- 63 D   Afristar mini-spelda          September  3.89
 24137   94- 29 GL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  4    Note 1
 24206   94- 29 KH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  4
  7870   72- 58 AS  Landsat 1 Delta deb           September  5
 25446   94- 29 AEB STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  6?   Note 1
 25899   99- 47 D   Yamal 101 Proton platform     September  7.0
 25898   99- 47 C   Yamal 101 Proton r            September  7.41 Note 3
 25653   99- 12 E   Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1          September 10.17
 10223   77- 65 BA  Himawari (GMS) 1 Delta deb    September 11.07
 25447   94- 29 AEC STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 11?
 10339   77- 65 DN  Himawari 1 Delta deb September 14
 24491   94- 29 UQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 15
 24983   94- 29 ACR STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 17
 22878   93- 68 B   GPS 2-23 Delta r1    September 18
 25712   89-100 BH  C 2053 Tsyklon deb   September 19
 18461   86- 19 SZ  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb  September 23
 15076   84- 63 E   Raduga 15 aux motor  September 25
 24121   94- 29 FU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 27
 22288   92- 93 C   C 2227 Zenit deb       October  3
 24260   94- 29 MK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  4
 24445   94- 29 TB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  4
 24235   94- 29 LJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  8
 25717   89-100 BN  C 2053 Tsyklon deb     October  9
 25903   99- 48 B   Foton 12 Soyuz r       October 11
  9815   76-126 AB  Cosmos 886 deb         October 12
 25680   99- 19 E   Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1   October 12
 24168   94- 29 HT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 13
 24744   97- 10 A   Zeya                  November  4
 25500   98- 25 F   C 2350 aux motor      November  6
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                 November  6
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r   November  7
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r              November 11
 22016   92- 39 C   GPS 2-14 Delta r2     November 19
 12134   81-  2 B   Molniya 3-14 r2       November
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r          December
 19377   88- 69 A   Molniya 1-73          December
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat              December
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             December
                                           (2000)
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r           January
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r      January
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1              February
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     February
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r          March-April
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          March-April
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r    March-April
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r         April-May
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             April-May
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                     May-July


Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.

2. The re-entry of #25761 was observed as a slow fragmenting fireball 
from Oregon, N California and Nevada at ~04:27 UTC on September 2, the 
time given above.

3. The re-entry of #25898 on September 7 was observed from New Orleans 
and Florida, presumably between 09:01 and 09:03 UTC, the time given
above.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/