SatEvo decay list #84
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 11 Sep 1999 16:22:15 +0100
SatEvo decay list #84 (issued 1999 September 11)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 1999 October 31, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.
I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1999) -----
Predicted Actual?
24272 64- 26 H Transit 9 deb August 31
25761 99- 10 E Raguda 104 aux motor September 2.19 Note 2
25691 86- 17 NE Mir deb September 2
24183 94- 29 JJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 3 Note 1
25518 98- 63 D Afristar mini-spelda September 3.89
24137 94- 29 GL STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 4 Note 1
24206 94- 29 KH STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 4
7870 72- 58 AS Landsat 1 Delta deb September 5
25446 94- 29 AEB STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 6? Note 1
25899 99- 47 D Yamal 101 Proton platform September 7.0
25898 99- 47 C Yamal 101 Proton r September 7.41 Note 3
25653 99- 12 E Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1 September 10.17
10223 77- 65 BA Himawari (GMS) 1 Delta deb September 11.07
25447 94- 29 AEC STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 11?
10339 77- 65 DN Himawari 1 Delta deb September 14
24491 94- 29 UQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 15
24983 94- 29 ACR STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 17
22878 93- 68 B GPS 2-23 Delta r1 September 18
25712 89-100 BH C 2053 Tsyklon deb September 19
18461 86- 19 SZ Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb September 23
15076 84- 63 E Raduga 15 aux motor September 25
24121 94- 29 FU STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 27
22288 92- 93 C C 2227 Zenit deb October 3
24260 94- 29 MK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 4
24445 94- 29 TB STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 4
24235 94- 29 LJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 8
25717 89-100 BN C 2053 Tsyklon deb October 9
25903 99- 48 B Foton 12 Soyuz r October 11
9815 76-126 AB Cosmos 886 deb October 12
25680 99- 19 E Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1 October 12
24168 94- 29 HT STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 13
24744 97- 10 A Zeya November 4
25500 98- 25 F C 2350 aux motor November 6
25550 98- 69 B SAC-A November 6
24832 97- 28 E C 2344 SOZ ullage r November 7
24972 97- 57 B IRS-1D r November 11
22016 92- 39 C GPS 2-14 Delta r2 November 19
12134 81- 2 B Molniya 3-14 r2 November
4222 69- 97 B AZUR Scout r December
19377 88- 69 A Molniya 1-73 December
24291 96- 50 A Microsat December
25551 98- 69 C MightySat December
(2000)
1844 65-106 B Cosmos 100 r January
25014 97- 63 B STEP M4 Pegasus r January
22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 February
22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 February
25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r February
7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r March-April
9854 77- 15 B Cosmos 895 r March-April
25790 99- 34 B QuikScat Titan 2 r March-April
22876 93- 67 B Cosmos 2265 r April-May
25769 99- 30 B Starshine April-May
16609 86- 17 A Mir May-July
Notes
1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. The re-entry of #25761 was observed as a slow fragmenting fireball
from Oregon, N California and Nevada at ~04:27 UTC on September 2, the
time given above.
3. The re-entry of #25898 on September 7 was observed from New Orleans
and Florida, presumably between 09:01 and 09:03 UTC, the time given
above.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/