Decay watch: September 10

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 10 Sep 1999 21:26:37 +0100

I have again updated my Decay Watch page at 

      http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/

My analysis of this morning's decay of #25653, the Globalstar 22 Soyuz
rocket, suggests that this occurred at September 10 04:12 UTC +-45m.
The final elset has it running less than 4 sec late against the
prediction I posted on my Decay Watch page yesterday. A new analysis
satisfies the final five elsets with a mean residual of 0.05 sec (max
0.26 sec). I show re-entry while it was NE-bound over the SE Atlantic on
a track taking it over Africa from Angola at 04:13 UTC to the Red Sea at
04:24. My prediction for the elset for the beginning of the final rev
is:
Gstar22 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d 12.2       140 x 121 km
1 25653U 99012E   99253.11922060  .46578684  13353+1  27919-3 0 92795
2 25653  51.9408  80.0975 0014657 332.0115  27.9097 16.53275565 27599

The WWW page also has my prediction for the decay of #10223, the GMS 1
Delta 1 deb BA, for September 11 03:09 UTC +-4h. I show this near the
southbound equator crossing over the western Indian Ocean. That final
orbit takes it over Honduras at 02:33 UTC, the SE tip of Cuba (02:36),
across the Atlantic to the Canary Is (02:50) and across N Africa to
Somalia (03:06). If it stays in orbit it would reach the W Australian
coast at 03:25 and Brisbane at 03:34.

Finally, I update my decay prediction for #22878, the GPS2-23 Delta r.
This appears to have slipped considerably to September 18 13:55 UTC
+-1.8d.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/