Re:Decay visible from Florida

Bill T Bard (wtba@eci-esyst.com)
Wed, 8 Sep 1999 07:54:18 -0400 

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There is an article in the St. Pete Times
<http://sptimes.com/News/90899/TampaBay/Mystery_lights_turn_o.shtml>. It
gives a time around 5:04 AM local time or 9:04 UTC. I wonder what time
Space Commands decay time represents. Perhaps it is the time the object is
no longer in orbit, on its way down. In which case, perhaps it could take
an object 20 minutes or so to make it's way down.

Bill Bard








Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de (Harro.Zimmer) on 09/08/99 05:57:27 AM
                                                                           
                                                                           
                                                                           


                                                              
                                                              
                                                              
 To:      SeeSat-L@blackadder.lmsal.com                       
                                                              
 cc:      (bcc: Bill T Bard/STP/Raytheon/US)                  
                                                              
                                                              
                                                              
 Subject: Re:Decay visible from Florida                       
                                                              








A local TV rport mentioned a satellite decay on Sept.7 "around 5:20 AM
local"
visible from the "West Coast of Florida" and and associated it with an"
SL-12
rocket body, used to launch a Russian communications satellite".

It is a interesting but questionable case: For 1999-047C (#25898)we have
the following "final" decay announcements:
    SpaceCom:       07. September  08:51 UTC +/- 01 minutes (51.7
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=B0N,
208.3=B0E)
    MPM (Harro):    07. September  08:42 UTC +/- 13 minutes (33.3=B0N,
155.6=B0E)
    SATEVO (Alan)   07. September  09:44 UTC +/- 45 minutes
If we accept a later decay the final orbit (rev 10) could be crossed
actually the
Gulf of Mexico.
For example: From Fort Myers (West Coast of Florida) there was a possib=
le
visibility at Sept. 7, between 09:01 and 09:05 UTC with a maximum eleva=
tion
at
25.5=B0 (220=B0AZ).
 At this moment there are three reasons against the identification of t=
he
obser-
vation with the SL-12 RB decay:
1) SpaceComs very precise decay time  (+/- 01 minutes )
2) If a later decay correct the object must have crossed the USA from N=
W to
SE
   and also the SpaceCommands Surveillance Network. There are at this t=
ime
no
   other visual observations along this reentry path.
3) Calculations based on the last released ELSET and a "normal" decay
   behavior shows  that the reported time is at least 10 minutes too la=
te.

We can speculate about a piece of debris, separated in the final stage =
of
the
decay with a later reentry... and so on. But let us wait for additional=

informations and !!! observations !!!

Harro

Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
Berlin, Germany


=

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