Decay Forecast SOYUZ R/B

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Report time 10:00 UTC

1999-012E (#25653) SOYUZ R/B:
SpaceComs first prediction - prepared 06 September 01:38 UTC - shows a decay
                     10 September, 01:23 UTC +/- 02 days (09.8°S, 64.3°E)
MPM delivers with the last ELSETs 99248.997... and 99249.183... a decay at
                     10 September, 01:13 UTC +/- 06 hours

BTW: Back from the hospital I saw the discussions about the decay
of 1999-010E (#25761) SL-12 AUX MOTOR.
MPM delivered with the last ELSET 99245.125... a decay at 
                    02 September, 04:30.2 UTC   
a little bit later then SpaceComs and Alans final predictions but well within 
their uncertainty limits. I have missed a detailed discussion of the meteor / 
fireball observations from Oregon and Northern California in connection with the 
decay. My preliminary analysis shows the reentry trajectory in very good 
agreement with the visual observations and a breakup time around 04:29 UTC.
I don't expect any recoverable debris from relatively the small ullage motor
(mass around 55 kg).

Harro

Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de   
Berlin. Germany

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