SatEvo decay list #62

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 20 Sep 1998 11:47:36 +0100

SatEvo decay list #62  (issued 1998 September 20)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by October 31, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

Although it is not included in this decay list, I calculate that the 
Mir complex now has less than one year left in orbit, even if nothing 
is done to deorbit it intentionally. My current calculations suggest
decay in 1999 August, but increasing levels of solar activity could
bring it down two or three months earlier than this.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, the Shuttle, and 
all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24425   94- 29 SD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  2
 10794   78- 39 C   YURI Delta 1 r2               September  4.90
 22524   93- 10 G   M-3S2 aux motor               September  5.61
 18879   88- 12 C   CS 3A H-1 r2                  September  6.1
 23970   94- 29 Q   STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September  6
 25466   98- 50 E   Astra 2A Proton deb           September  6?
 14041   83- 38 E   Cosmos 1456 r                 September  8.53
 22541   92- 93 HB  C 2227 Zenit deb              September 10
 25378   94- 29 ADQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 10
 24255   94- 29 ME  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 12
  5400   71- 67 M   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb             September 15.65
 24535   94- 29 WK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 16
 24587   94- 29 YP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 16
 22821   93- 11 G   M-3S2 deb                     September 19.30
 24935   81- 59 H   NOAA 7 deb                    September 19
 14587   83-126 A   Cosmos 1518                   September 19.6
 24561   94- 29 XM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 20
 25433   98- 48 C   Iridium 3 CSL02 r    September 20.85
 23065   89- 89 BL  COBE deb             September 21?
 25357   94- 29 ADM STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 21
 25434   98- 48 D   Iridium 3 CSL02 S/D  September 22
 25439   86- 17 MV  Mir deb              September 22
   156   61- 15 AS  Thor Ablestar deb    September 25
 10202   77- 65 AF  Himawari Delta deb   September 25?
 22539   92- 93 GZ  Cosmos 2223 deb      September 25
 24171   94- 29 HW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 25
 20957   90-102 E   Gorizont 33 aux mot  September 26
 24915   81- 59 G   NOAA 7 deb           September 26
 24830   97- 28 D   Cos 2344 ullage r    September 28
 25020   97- 65 B   DSCS-3 Centaur r     September 29
  4894   69- 82 HD  Thorad Agena D deb   September 30
 24784   95-  8 K   Cosmos 2306 deb        October  2
 24379   94- 29 QG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  4
 24250   94- 29 LZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  6
 24012   94- 29 BH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  7
 24533   94- 29 WH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  8
 24456   95- 71 C   Cosmos 2326 deb        October  9
 23202   94- 49 D   BzlSt B1 Ariane deb    October 11
 22683   89- 89 E   COBE deb               October 14
 22920   90- 37 C   HST array              October 14
 24691   94- 29 AAZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 14
 17342   86- 19 DP  SPOT 1 Ariane 1 deb    October 15
 20116   89- 52 F   Gorizont 18 aux motor  October 16
 23771   95- 11 J   SFU deb                October 16
 25335   94- 29 ADL STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 17
 24783   95-  8 J   Cosmos 2306 deb        October 18
 20979   90-105 B   DMSP F10 deb           October 20
 24396   94- 29 QZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 20
 24030   94- 29 CB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 22
 25052   97- 71 D   Sirius 2 deb (Spelda)  October 26
 24232   94- 29 LF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 27
 11240   79-  4 A   Molniya 3-11          November
 20546   90- 28 A   Pegsat                November
 23101   94- 28 A   MSTI 2                November
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor             November
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6            December
  8368   75-100 C   GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2     December
 25294   86- 17 MQ  Mir VDU               December
 25421   96- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/