SatEvo decay list #38

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 14 Sep 1997 16:41:28 +0100

SatEvo decay list #38  (issued 1997 September 14)

Here are my latest SatEvo decay analyses and predictions. 
The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the final 
available elements. Pegasus debris are included if I predict their 
decay by November 1; other objects are included to November 30. 
Drag rates appear to have increased some 10 days ago, bringing a
several objects to premature decays, and shifting the predicted 
decay dates forwards for many others.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
There you can also find current elements (updated every three hours
or so) for all the still-to-decay objects below, plus other objects 
of interest, including Mir, Iridiums (until deployed) and recently
launched/catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name                   ------- Decay -------
                                              Predicted   Actual?

 24049   94- 29 CW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 August 31
 24922   97- 43 G   Iridium deb                        August 31
 20389   89-100 A   Cosmos 2053                     September  2.40
 23983   94- 29 AD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  2
 22776   89- 89 AM  COBE deb                        September  3
 24485   94- 29 UJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  3
 24253   94- 29 MC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  4
 24923   97- 43 H   Iridium deb                     September  4
 24823   94- 29 ABV STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  5
 24448   94- 29 SQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  6
 24928   97- 48 D   Long March 2 deb                September  7.3
 24929   97- 48 E   Long March 2 deb                September  7.8
 24478   94- 29 UB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  9
 24513   94- 29 VM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September  9
 24882   97- 34 G   Iridium deb                     September 10.5
 24687   94- 29 AAV STEP-2 Pegasus deb              September 12
 23783   86- 17 JV  Mir deb                         September 13.33
 24951   97- 51 H   Iridium Proton r     September 14.47
 24055   94- 29 DC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 16
 22450   92- 93 EP  SL-16 deb            September 17
 24564   94- 29 XQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 17
 24623   94- 29 AAB STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 18
 22771   89- 89 AG  COBE deb             September 19
 24015   94- 29 BL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 19
 24044   94- 29 CR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 20
 24608   94- 29 ZL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 21
 24924   97- 43 J   Iridium deb          September 22
 24857   95- 28 G   Cosmos 2313 deb      September 24 Note 1
 19052   63- 14 EB  Westford Needles deb September 25?
 24855   95- 28 E   Cosmos 2313 deb      September 25
 24550   94- 29 XA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 26
 24884   97- 37 B   OrbView 2 Pegasus r  September 28
 24909   97- 44 A   Lewis                September 28
 23912   89- 17 LA  Mir deb              September 29
 24450   94- 29 SS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  4
 23080   89- 89 CB  COBE deb               October  5
 24621   94- 29 ZZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  5
 24492   94- 29 UR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  6
 24930   97- 48 F   Long March deb (r?)    October  9 Note 2
 24910   97- 44 B   LMLV-1                 October 19
 24005   94- 29 BA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 20
 24335   94- 29 NL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 20
 24690   94- 29 AAY STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 20
 23507   95-  8 C   Cosmos 2306 deb        October 21
 24271   94- 29 MW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 21
 24898   97- 34 J   Iridium deb            October 21
 23551   83 75 BE   Cosmos 1484 deb        October 27
 21863   92-  5 H   SL-12 r (aux motor)    October 30
 22858   89- 89 AV  COBE deb               October 30
 21274   75- 52 K   Delta 1 deb           November  6
 24908   97- 43 F   Iridium Delta 2 r     November  7
 23897   86- 17 KQ  Mir debris            November 13
 16997   76- 77 EV  Delta 1 deb           November 17
 24749   97- 11 B   Tempo-1 Atlas 2A r    November 18
 23924   86- 17 LR  Mir debris            November 19
 23691   86- 17 JN  Mir debris            November 20
 24943   89- 17 MD  Mir debris            November 21

Note

1. Object #24857 = 95- 28 G (Cosmos 2313) was identified incorrectly
as #24855 last time.

2. Observations show #24930 = 97- 48 F to be considerably brighter
than #24927 = 97- 48 C, supposedly the Long March 2 rocket which
launched two dummy Iridium masses on September 1. It may well be 
that "F" is the rocket.

Alan


-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/