SatEvo decay list #13

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 7 Sep 1996 14:09:40 +0100

SatEvo decay list #13  (issued 1996 September 7)

Here are my latest SatEvo decay predictions. The "Actual?" 
decay times are estimated from the final available elements.

   #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay -------
                                          Predicted   Actual?

 23919   86- 17 LF  GFZ 1 deb              (Note 1)   August ? 
 23962   94- 29 K   STEP-2 Pegasus deb                August 24.5:
 24275   96- 45 C   Molniya platform                  September 1.3:
 24288   94- 29 MX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                September 1?
 24251   94- 29 MA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                September 2.50
 23927   86- 17 LP  GFZ 1 deb                         September 4.25
 24022   94- 29 BT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                September 4.53
 23956   94- 29 D   STEP-2 Pegasus deb                September 5.0
 24289   94- 29 MY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                September 6?
 24290   94- 29 MY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September  8.7
 23959   94- 29 G   STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 12
 23926   86- 17 LN  GFZ 1 deb           September 14
  4641   70- 25 Z   Thorad Agena D deb  September 22
 24037   94- 29 CJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 23
 24274   96- 45 B   Molniya SL-6 r?     September 23
 16982   86- 73 B   NOAA 10 deb           October  4
 23988   94- 29 AJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 13
 24028   94- 29 BZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 14
 23888   86- 17 KG  GFZ 1 deb             October 16
 23856   86- 17 KF  GFZ 1 deb             October 21
 23869   96- 31 B   MSTI-3 Pegasus r      October 22
 12347   80- 30 V   Cosmos 1174 deb       October 24
 13682   81- 28 BE  Cosmos 1260 deb       October 27
 23689   86- 17 JL  GFZ 1 deb             October 27
 24219   94- 29 KS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 29
  7047   73- 86 AP  Delta 1 deb           October 30
 24160   94- 29 HK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  8
 24063   94- 29 DL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  9
 24056   94- 29 DD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 21
 24200   94- 29 KB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 22
 24011   94- 29 BG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 23

Notes:

1. #23919 = 86- 17 LF (GFZ 1 deb). During the 38 days this object was 
tracked, the published elsets were inconsistent in both n and ndot. 
The latest elset, issued on day 96207 (July 25), implies that it 
was some six months from decay. Yet NASA predicted decay for August 7 
and the object was subsequently removed from the OIG database as though 
it was indeed down. 

2. By September 6, the perigee height of #8074 = 66- 56 H 
(Pageos 1 deb H) was down to 363 km and that of #23800 = 96-  5 E 
(Gorizont 31 SL-12 deb) was around 124 km.


Bjorn Gimle maintains a WWW resource of decay information at
                http://www.algonet.se/~b_gimle/

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224