Possible acceleration of Cosmos 2219 rocket (22220, 92 76B)

Mike McCants (mikem@fc.net)
Thu, 5 Sep 1996 11:16:13 -0500

Walter Nissen asks:
 
>Has anyone been following C* 2219 r?  Is that drag real?

>C* 2219 r 
>1 22220U 92076  B 96235.18181259  .00004568  00000-0  23386-2 0  5456 
>2 22220  70.9974 213.8507 0013363 326.6000  33.4281 14.15394674194374 

I would guess that the above drag term was generated by Ted Molczan's
"drag smoothing program".  The actual Spacecom elset has a much smaller
drag.  However, Ted's program generated that value because the mean
motion for this rocket has greatly changed over the last few weeks.
So this Zenit is a strong candidate as a newly accelerated object.

The most recent elset is:

1 22220U 92076B   96248.04426114 -.00000362 +00000-0 -16117-3 0 05553
2 22220 070.9990 186.8289 0014023 307.2877 052.6968 14.15389798196197

Even this small negative drag term seems real and could be an indication
of a continuing acceleration of the tumble period.

This object is currently visible from latitude 54 to 71 north and
54 to 71 south.

Mike McCants
mikem@fc.net

Older elsets:

1 22220U 92076B   96226.13552007 -.00000049  00000-0 -63990-6 0  5387
2 22220  70.9939 232.8655 0013414 341.5206  18.5423 14.15216980193094

1 22220U 92076B   96226.41824645 -.00000043 +00000-0 +23229-5 0 05392
2 22220 070.9939 232.2716 0013404 341.1120 018.9508 14.15217031193137

1 22220U 92076B   96227.40778630 +.00000052 +00000-0 +51417-4 0 05493
2 22220 070.9932 230.1913 0013341 339.6070 020.4520 14.15218036193275

1 22220U 92076B   96228.18524870 +.00001138 +00000-0 +60895-3 0 05398
2 22220 070.9931 228.5575 0014639 336.2283 023.8162 14.15234314193387

A large positive change in mean motion about July 15.

1 22220U 92076B   96228.46791922  .00019790  00000-0  10141-1 0  5405
2 22220  70.9758 227.9493 0011372 359.9908   0.1639 14.15333335193428

1 22220U 92076B   96229.10393770  .00014343  00000-0  73543-2 0  5412
2 22220  70.9824 226.6173 0012286 332.0199  28.0207 14.15419484193512

And a large negative change in mean motion on July 16.

1 22220U 92076B   96229.45730648 -.00014626  00000-0 -74855-2 0  5423
2 22220  70.9866 225.8792 0012989 327.5784  32.4475 14.15377467193560

1 22220U 92076B   96230.09337393 -.00010837 +00000-0 -55380-2 0 05494
2 22220 070.9913 224.5405 0012847 330.7726 029.2680 14.15367347193653

1 22220U 92076B   96231.08279296 +.00000932 +00000-0 +50202-3 0 05505
2 22220 070.9945 222.4632 0013125 333.9651 026.0810 14.15391389193797

1 22220U 92076B   96232.07221062 +.00001144 +00000-0 +61022-3 0 05602
2 22220 070.9955 220.3830 0013324 332.8117 027.2306 14.15395192193936

1 22220U 92076B   96234.05104834 +.00000437 +00000-0 +24847-3 0 05809
2 22220 070.9964 216.2255 0013539 328.8995 031.1325 14.15394914194216

1 22220U 92076B   96235.18181259  .00000245  00000-0  14987-3 0  5452
2 22220  70.9974 213.8507 0013363 326.6000  33.4281 14.15394674194374

1 22220U 92076B   96236.10055702 +.00000269 +00000-0 +16234-3 0 05552
2 22220 070.9984 211.9214 0013278 325.2582 034.7650 14.15395442194507

1 22220U 92076B   96237.01930291 +.00000197 +00000-0 +12531-3 0 05611
2 22220 070.9989 209.9919 0013370 323.7677 036.2541 14.15395489194633

1 22220U 92076B   96238.07939271 +.00000197 +00000-0 +12525-3 0 05708
2 22220 070.9987 207.7643 0013548 322.1677 037.8479 14.15395993194784

1 22220U 92076B   96239.42217328 +.00000167 +00000-0 +11015-3 0 05801
2 22220 070.9991 204.9441 0013495 319.7767 040.2354 14.15396417194970

1 22220U 92076B   96240.97697200 +.00000098 +00000-0 +74847-4 0 05541
2 22220 070.9988 201.6774 0013477 317.2247 042.7823 14.15396420195192

1 22220U 92076B   96242.95581134 -.00000191 +00000-0 -73392-4 0 05684
2 22220 070.9993 197.5200 0013435 314.4959 045.5064 14.15394152195477

1 22220U 92076B   96244.08657677 -.00000265 +00000-0 -11104-3 0 05556
2 22220 070.9996 195.1445 0013642 313.0542 046.9430 14.15393162195638

1 22220U 92076B   96244.93465172 -.00000336 +00000-0 -14770-3 0 05637
2 22220 070.9993 193.3622 0013830 311.9398 048.0535 14.15392111195752

1 22220U 92076B   96246.06541936 -.00000412 +00000-0 -18680-3 0 05714
2 22220 070.9990 190.9861 0014001 310.2533 049.7370 14.15390681195914

1 22220U 92076B   96246.91349410 -.00000389 +00000-0 -17483-3 0 05488
2 22220 070.9989 189.2043 0014021 308.9700 051.0171 14.15390292196034

1 22220U 92076B   96248.04426114 -.00000362 +00000-0 -16117-3 0 05553
2 22220 070.9990 186.8289 0014023 307.2877 052.6968 14.15389798196197