Re: Falcon 9 Payload Deployment

From: Jon Mikel (jonmikelk@gmail.com)
Date: Fri Oct 04 2013 - 08:46:48 UTC

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    Hi all;
    
    There are some objects that still having one elset, so they are 4 or 5 days
    old.
    we can see that some updated objects have a huge decay rate:
    
    Using satevo I get this:
    -Object D (#39268)(14 updated elsets) will decay at medium november.
    -Object F (#39270)(3 updated elsets) decay is uncertain. The first 2 elsets
    has a very low decay but 3rd one is huge. If the last elset is correct will
    decay in october 29. This is a 4 day old elset. Greg observed it on +8 to
    +10 mag tumbling.
    -Object G (#39271) has also a huge decay rate but its confusing cause we
    only have 2 elsets. If 2nd elset is correct, should decay on midium october.
    -Object H (#39272) that has 8 updated elsets, will decay on the second week
    of october 2013 (days 7 to 13)
    -Object U (#39273) that has 9 updated elsets, will decay in some days
    (prediction says that will decay october 7 to 9). This object has name
    Object I some days ago.
    -Object J (#39274) has 3 updated elements. Last one is 3 days old. The 2
    first elsets (taken in the first and 7th orbit) have not decay rate. If the
    3rd elset is correct, will decay on november of 2014.
    -Object K (#39275) has 2 updated elements. Last elset is 4 days old. Has
    got a very low decay rate.
    -Object L (#39276) has 9 updated elements. Last elset is 2 days old. Has a
    extremetly huge decay rate. I think this is false, cause if this is true,
    should decay today (or yesterday).
    -Object M (#39277) has 10 updated elements. Last elset is 1 day old. With a
    extreme decay rate on the last 8 elsets. Should decay in the last days of
    the month.
    -Object N (#39278) has 11 updated elements. Last elset is 1 day old.
    Should decay on the last days of october or first days of nobember.
    -Object Q (#39281) has 2 updated elements. Last elset is 4 days old.
    -Object R (#39282) has 16 updated elements. Last elset is 1 day old. If
    decay rate is true, should decay in next days. Taking a look to mean motion
    looks true.
    -Object T (#39284) has 13 updated elements. Last elset is 1 day old. Will
    decay on october 9 to 13.
    
    *some objects are not on the list cause they havn't got a big decay rate or
    there are not updated.
    
    
    My theory is that the most updated objects are the biggest one or payloads.
    Here is a list of them:
    -Object D (#39268)
    -Object H (#39272)
    -Object U (#39273)
    -Object L (#39276)
    -Object M (#39277)
    -Object N (#39278)
    -Object R (#39282)
    -Object T (#39284)
    
    We have 8 updated objects. Counting the number of objects that should
    appear after a nominal launch we got:
    -2nd stage.
    -Cassiope.
    -3 POPACS.
    -DANDE.
    -CUSAT (2 objects).
    
    Adding together we've got 8 objects. I'm pretty sure that is only a
    coincidence, but we never know...
    
    Only time and observations will say us what is what.
    
    Jon.
    
    
    -- 
    Jon Mikel, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque Country.
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