Re: ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v9

From: Paul Salanitri (paul.salanitri@gmail.com)
Date: Sat Oct 22 2011 - 12:25:34 UTC

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "RE: ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v9"

    I think our only hope is to match a recent observation and tune the drag
    setting in a TLE file and SatEvo it.
    
    There is a very good (actually fantastic) photograph that could not have
    been done any better - perfect, but I am struggling to contact the
    photographer.
    
    Photo details:
    http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=David-Harvey-_MG_5615ps3_web_1319250108.jpg
    Photographer: David Harvey
    
    This would be enough to get the time to within a few hours I believe.
    
    Paul S.
    
    On Sat, Oct 22, 2011 at 10:17 PM, Ted Molczan <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> wrote:
    
    > I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638),
    > made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    > USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer.
    >
    > http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v9.pdf
    >
    > The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC.
    >
    > Oddly, the latest TLE on Space Track remains that of epoch 11294.0621390,
    > nearly 35 hours ago, yet a new TIP message has
    > appeared in the interim.
    >
    > 1. Updated since my previous report:
    >
    > USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 22 at 03:30 UTC, predicts
    > decay on Oct 23 at 01:31 UTC, +/- 24 h:
    >
    > http://www.space-track.org
    >
    > Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 21 at 14:40 UTC, is 23 October, 05:33
    > UTC +/- 6 h:
    >
    > http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0214.html
    >
    > 2. Unchanged since my previous report:
    >
    > My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11294.0621390 TLE, is Oct
    > 23 near 05:00 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 10
    > h, based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    >
    > The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch
    > 11293.8168200 TLE, is Oct 23 at 13:24 UTC +/- 16 h:
    >
    > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html
    >
    > I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from
    > additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    > welcome.
    >
    > Ted Molczan
    >
    >
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    >
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