ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v8

From: Ted Molczan (
Date: Fri Oct 21 2011 - 12:04:19 UTC

  • Next message: Leo Enright: "Galileo IOV-1/Fregat-MT Over Europe"

    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer.
    The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC.
    1. Updated since v6:
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11293.8168200 TLE, is Oct 23 at 13:24 UTC +/- 16 h:
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11294.0621390 TLE, is Oct 23 near 05:00 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 10
    h, based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 21 at 05:24 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 05:49 UTC, +/- 24 h:
    2. Unchanged since v5:
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 20 at 17:00 UTC, is 23 October, 07:21 UTC +/- 6 h:
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    Ted Molczan
    Seesat-l mailing list

    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Oct 21 2011 - 12:05:33 UTC