I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation, USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v8.pdf The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC. 1. Updated since v6: The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11293.8168200 TLE, is Oct 23 at 13:24 UTC +/- 16 h: http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11294.0621390 TLE, is Oct 23 near 05:00 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 10 h, based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb. USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 21 at 05:24 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 05:49 UTC, +/- 24 h: http://www.space-track.org 2. Unchanged since v5: Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 20 at 17:00 UTC, is 23 October, 07:21 UTC +/- 6 h: http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0183.html I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are welcome. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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