I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation, USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer. First, I corrected an error in the v5 report, in which the Satevo uncertainty bars were out of synch with the predictions: http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v5.pdf Next I produced v6, which includes the updated predictions described below: http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v6.pdf Since Oct 13, the consensus date of decay has been Oct 23 UTC. 1. Updated since v5: The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 10:33 UTC +/- 24 h: http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 19 at 16:00 UTC, is 23 October, 08:30 UTC +/- 7 h: http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0165.html 2. Unchanged since v5: USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 18 at 11:10 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 11:28 UTC, +/- 72 h: http://www.space-track.org My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 near 10 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 16 h, based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb. I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are welcome. Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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