Scott Tilley's NOSS UNID

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sun Oct 16 2011 - 22:48:24 UTC

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    Scott Tilley spotted an UNID, for which he reported several observations spanning nearly one minute of time, and a
    circular orbit approximation:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0127.html
    
    Independent analyses by my myself and Mike McCants indicate that this object may be debris from one of the NOSS
    launches.
    
    Mike obtained the following result by imposing "NOSS 3 values for mean motion and inclination and eccentricity and
    adjust the argument of perigee to fit":
    
    1 99991U          11289.12322219 0.00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 99991  63.4400 167.9500 0900000  59.4717 300.5282 13.43000000    07
    
    I obtained the following result by allowing all elements to vary except rate of decay:
    
                                                            531 X 1489 km
    1 70000U          11289.12442189  .00000188  00000-0  50000-4 0    08
    2 70000  63.3127 168.1162 0648952  59.1087 307.2119 13.66764325    06
    
    Of course, a short arc is unlikely to yield an accurate mean motion, so I offer a set of search elements based on
    different values of mean motion, as appended.
    
    Based on the perigee height and inclination, the object belongs to one the final three first generation NOSS launched,
    most likely that of NOSS 1-8 (87034A-H). If it is the Living Plume Shield (87043B / 17998), then its mean motion is
    likely to be closer to 13.4 rev/d; if it is other debris, or a regular plume shield (i.e. non-living) from a different
    launch, then its mean motion is more likely to be greater than 13.5 rev/d.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    Search elements
                                                            578 X 1638 km
    1 70001U          11289.12419365  .00000248  00000-0  10000-3 0    01
    2 70001  63.3147 168.1038 0708287  68.0045 299.4668 13.40000000    08
    
                                                            570 X 1609 km
    1 70002U          11289.12423661  .00000266  00000-0  10000-3 0    06
    2 70002  63.3144 168.1061 0695950  66.4560 300.7988 13.45000000    04
    
                                                            561 X 1581 km
    1 70003U          11289.12427941  .00000286  00000-0  10000-3 0    04
    2 70003  63.3140 168.1085 0684155  64.8554 302.1835 13.50000000    00
    
                                                            553 X 1553 km
    1 70004U          11289.12432203  .00000309  00000-0  10000-3 0    08
    2 70004  63.3136 168.1108 0672928  63.2027 303.6210 13.55000000    03
    
                                                            544 X 1525 km
    1 70005U          11289.12436449  .00000334  00000-0  10000-3 0    03
    2 70005  63.3132 168.1131 0662292  61.4981 305.1111 13.60000000    01
    
                                                            534 X 1499 km
    1 70006U          11289.12440677  .00000364  00000-0  10000-3 0    05
    2 70006  63.3128 168.1154 0652273  59.7425 306.6530 13.65000000    09
    
                                                            524 X 1473 km
    1 70007U          11289.12444888  .00000397  00000-0  10000-3 0    00
    2 70007  63.3124 168.1178 0642897  57.9367 308.2456 13.70000000    09
    
                                                            514 X 1447 km
    1 70008U          11289.12449083  .00000436  00000-0  10000-3 0    07
    2 70008  63.3120 168.1201 0634189  56.0823 309.8876 13.75000000    03
    
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